The health of the U.S. economy no longer depends heavily on energy use, the congressional Office of Technology Assessment says.
An OTA report on the subject analyzed the economy in 1972-85, when U.S. energy use remained flat but the economy grew 40%.
This was a sharp departure from post-World War II trends when growth in the two factors appeared to be in lock step, OTA said.
The study found that economic growth is not necessarily contingent upon using more energy. Economic growth occurs as a result of changes in other factors such as capital investments in new energy efficient equipment and changes in the relative price of energy vs. other products.
OTA said the leveling of energy consumption during the period was not solely due to improvements in energy efficiency. About one-third was due to structural shifts in the economy, such as the shifting toward less energy intensive industries-services, for example, like finance and health care.
If the energy efficiency gains had not been made, the U.S. would have needed 20% more energy in 1985 to produce its output than it used.
INDIRECT CONSUMPTION
OTA study said while the change in the direct use of energy such as gasoline and heating fuel has been relatively small, due to the growing complexity of the U.S. economy energy is increasingly being consumed indirectly, embodied in nonenergy products such as clothes, tires, and automobiles.
Most of the increase in indirect energy use in 1972-85 came from demand for services.
"Although the energy intensity of the service sector is low, its size and rapid growth have caused its total energy use to be larger than that of manufacturing," OTA said.
"The U.S. also uses energy indirectly when it is embodied in goods and services imported into this country. As the trade deficit has deepened, so has this indirect energy use."
OTA estimated that in 1985, the U.S. consumed about 7 quadrillion BTU of energy embodied in nonenergy imports like cars and steel.
"If all this energy embodied in imports were obtained from foreign sources, our level of imported energy would increase by 50%."
And OTA noted energy savings can be achieved not only directly but also indirectly.
It said, "Nearly one fifth of the reduction in energy use achieved in 1972-85 because of changes in business production processes came indirectly as less energy intensive inputs like plastic were substituted for more intensive inputs like steel."
U.S. energy use increased 8% in 1985-88.
OTA said, "This resurgence in energy use is partially due to a shift in the structure of the U.S. economy back toward more energy intensive industries such as steel and aluminum. Some of the increase in energy use is the result of a rise in exports and a decline in the growth rate of imports.
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