US PRODUCTION TO FALL TO 8.1MMB/D BY YEAR-END

With sustained weakness in crude prices and oil rigs at the lowest level since the economic crisis of 2008, production in the US is set to see significant year-over-year declines this year. In a recent report, Genscape detailed how much it believes production will fall. Production in the US peaked at 9.6 MMb/d in April 2015 and declined to 9.2 MMb/d by December 2015. Genscape is expecting that these declines will continue into 2016 with production falling to just 8.1 Mb/d by year end 2016, which is a -740 Mb/d y/y decline from 2015.

2015 E&P DEAL REVIEW

In a year-end report on mergers and acquisitions in the oil and gas space for 2015, Deloitte noted that "M&A activities in the E&P sector faced the lowest year in 2015 since 2012 for both transactions and deal value." Most deals in 2015 included producing fields over mergers, 123 vs. 43, respectively, pointing to low-risk development decisions made by E&Ps. M&A activity within the E&P sector is expected to accelerate as hedging contracts expire and lenders are unable to provide additional equity, Deloitte said, but constraints remain as market uncertainty "may delay inflow of money from new investors."

WOODMAC: 68 UPSTREAM PROJECTS DEFERRED, DEEPWATER HARDEST HIT

In January, Wood Mackenzie provided an update to its July 2015 analysis on the impact of continued low oil prices on upstream oil and gas projects. The updated report concluded that in the last six months of 2015 an additional 22 major projects and seven billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of commercial reserves have been deferred, on top of the 46 developments and 20 billion boe of reserves identified previously. Deepwater projects have been hit hardest, accounting for over half of the total, as companies are forced to rework projects with high breakevens, large capital requirements and high costs.

Angus Rodger, Principal Analyst - Upstream Research for Wood Mackenzie, said: "The impact of lower oil prices on company plans has been brutal. What began in late-2014 as a haircut to discretionary spend on exploration and pre-development projects has become a full surgical operation to cut out all non-essential operational and capital expenditure. Tumbling prices and reduced budgets have forced companies to review and delay Final Investment Decisions (FID) on planned projects, to re-consider the most cost-effective path to commerciality and free-up the capital just to survive at low prices."

A recent Wood Mackenzie report identified 68 large projects globally that have had FID delayed due to the fall in oil prices since the oil price crash in 2014 to the end of 2015. The list has grown by over a third in the last six months. "For all 68 projects there are multiple elements contributing to delay. Price is rarely the only factor slowing down FID - but it has exerted the strongest influence," Rodger added.

Takeaways:

$380B of total project capex deferred (real terms), from the 68 projects
Of the $380B, delayed spend from the 68 projects from 2016 to 2020 totals $170B
Deepwater hit hardest: more than half of new project deferrals up from 17 to 29; 62% of total reserves; and 56% of total capex
2.9 MMb/d liquids production deferred to early next decade, up from 2 MMb/d
Oil most impacted: deferred liquid volumes up 44%, vs. 24% for gas
Average breakeven of delayed greenfield projects is $62/boe

"One reason we are seeing a growing list of delayed projects is cost deflation - or to be more accurate the need for costs to fall more to stimulate investment," Rodger said. And the analysis shows that this is where deepwater has made the least gains: "The biggest jump in pre-FID delayed projects over the last six months was in the deepwater, rising from 17 to 29, where costs have only fallen by around 10% despite the global crash in rig day-rates. Despite the size of these fields, the combination of insufficient cost deflation and significant upfront capital spend has discouraged companies from greenfield investment in the sector."

Tom Ellacott, vice president of Corporate Analysis for Wood Mackenzie noted that since Wood Mackenzie last ran this analysis a key change for companies is stricter investment criteria. "Companies are having to adjust investment strategies to the risk of sustained low prices and this means tougher screening criteria for pre-FID projects. We believe that most companies will now be looking for these developments to hit economic hurdle rates at around $60/bbl. Tougher capital allocation criteria will give companies the framework to make difficult decisions about restructuring portfolios, optimizing pre-FID projects and capturing the full benefits of cost deflation. If a sector or country cannot meet new investment thresholds and compete for capital, operators are now more likely to choose divestment over warehousing a stranded resource."

The production impact of these deferments is material in a global context: "By 2021 deferred volumes will reach 1.5 MMb/d, rising sharply to 2.9 MMb/d by 2025," Rodger said. The report's findings conclude that FIDs on many of these projects have been pushed back to 2017 or beyond, with first production currently targeted between 2020 and 2023. But against a backdrop of overwhelming corporate pressure to free-up capital and reduce future spend -- to the detriment of production growth -- there is considerable scope for this wall of output to get pushed back further if prices do not recover and/or costs do not fall enough.

"The countries with the largest inventory of delayed oil projects are Canada, Angola, Kazakhstan, Nigeria, Norway and the US, which hold nearly 90% of all deferred liquids reserves. This includes oil sands, onshore, shallow-water and deepwater assets in both greenfield and incremental developments," Rodger said. "Those with the largest gas reserves are Mozambique, Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia, which combined hold 85% of the total volume.

UPSTREAM NEWS

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