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Natural Gas Surplus May Be Ahead In Thailand

July 21, 1997

Thailand's thirst for natural gas is expected to ease over the next few years, and a surplus may occur by 2001. That's the outlook provided by Piyasvastu Amranand, secretary general of Thailand's National Energy Policy Office (NEPO). At present, Thai demand is about 600 MMcfd higher than supply. Supplies from all domestic fields are about 1.4 bfcd currently.

Thailand's thirst for natural gas is expected to ease over the next few years, and a surplus may occur by 2001.

That's the outlook provided by Piyasvastu Amranand, secretary general of Thailand's National Energy Policy Office (NEPO).

At present, Thai demand is about 600 MMcfd higher than supply.

Supplies from all domestic fields are about 1.4 bfcd currently.

Five new sources of supply will contribute to the dramatic change in Thailand's natural gas scenario: Yadana gas field off Myanmar in the Gulf of Martaban, the Malaysia-Thailand Joint Development Area (JDA), Unocal's Pailin field in the Gulf of Thailand, Texaco-operated Yetagun gas field off Myanmar, and Benchamas field in the Gulf of Thailand.

Combined gas supplies from nine local and overseas sources would be 3.517 bcfd in 2001, up sharply from the 1.8 bcfd anticipated in 1998, NEPO projects.

Supplies will swell even more in 2006, when 947 MMcfd of gas from Indonesia's Natuna field starts flowing into Thailand and the equivalent of 420 MMcfd of LNG comes in from Oman.

Adding even more to supplies will be an expected hike in delivery from the JDA fields, to 975 MMcfd from 488 MMcfd. As a result, total supplies available to Thailand in 2006 would be 5.35 bcfd. Supplies will come from 11 sources, five of these overseas.

According to NEPO, future supply sources break out as follows:

Year 2001: A total of 3.517 bcfd will be available. Unocal Thailand will supply 1.02 bcfd under 1-3 contracts; Bongkot field, 731 MMcfd; Esso's Nam Phong field, 95 MMcfd; Tantawan, 99 MMcfd; Yadana, 468 MMcfd; Pailin, 313 MMcfd; Benchamas, 97 MMcfd; Yetagun, 205 MMcfd; and JDA 488 MMcfd.

Year 2006: A total of 5.35 bcfd is expected to be supplied.

Most suppliers will hold at 2001 levels, but output from Esso's Nam Phong field is expected to drop to 49 MMcfd from 95 MMcfd in 2001.

This decline will be more than offset by increased supplies from the JDA (to 975 MMcfd from 488 MMcfd in 2001); LNG from Oman (420 MMcfd); and gas from Natuna field (974 MMcfd).