The Asia-Pacific region's imports of refined products will this year hit their lowest level since 1993 but begin to grow again in 1998 and beyond, said Enerfinance Consulting Services SA, Paris.
The region's products imports are expected to total just more than 1 million b/d this year but will rise to almost 1.8 million b/d in 2000, according to the analyst.
Although new refineries have started up in South Korea and Thailand, Enerfinance said regional refining capacity additions look set to be far lower than anticipated several years ago, while demand continues to rise above expectations.
"In 1995," said the analyst, "with all the projects announced in the region, refining capacity could potentially have risen from 11 million b/d to 13.5-16 million b/d by 2000. Eighteen months later, it has become clear that the region's refining capacity will, at maximum, reach the low end of this range by 2000 and possibly even less."
Enerfinance said China has closed its doors to foreign investment in refining, at least for now: "The multitude of projects under consideration even in 1994 are, for the most part, dead."
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