WINTER ENERGY SHORTAGES LOOM IN U.S.S.R.

Soviet officials have voiced increased concern over the possibility that widespread energy shortages in the U.S.S.R. may cause severe industrial power problems and limit fuel supplies for residential heating this winter. Moscow press reports say fuel stocks in a number of the nation's regions are considerably below normal for this time of year. Soviet meteorologists predict that January-February temperatures will be 3-4 C. colder than average.

Oct. 7, 1991

6 min read

Moscow press reports say fuel stocks in a number of the nation's regions are considerably below normal for this time of year. Soviet meteorologists predict that January-February temperatures will be 3-4 C. colder than average.

An unusually cold winter could force the U S.S.R. to reduce oil and gas exports, thus making the already critical Soviet hard currency shortage even more desperate.

Central authorities emphasize that "survival without catastrophe" during an abnormally harsh winter will be possible only if the U.S.S.R.'s republics abandon separatist moves and "selfish economic policies" and fashion a coordinated fuel program that will allow energy to be delivered to regions where it is most urgently needed.

The government newpaper Izvestia said the U.S.S.R. is ill prepared to provide large volumes of additional energy that will be required if the winter forecasts are correct.

In late September, Izvestia declared, crude delivered to Soviet refineries during 1991 had fallen one-third from the same 1990 period.

Authorities who during the summer said natural gas flow was about even with last year for the first 7 months of 1991 are now repeating previous pessimistic forecasts that gas production for the entire year may fall as much as 1 tcf from the 1990 volume. During the past 2 years, gas production gains have offset much of the U.S.S.R.'s decline in oil and coal production.

POWER STATION FUEL

Izvestia reported last month that fuel oil stocks at Soviet electrical power stations were 1.8 million metric tons less than on the same date in 1990. Coal supplies at power plants were 5 million tons less than those on hand at the same time last year.

With oil and coal production far below plan and gas flow showing small gains at best through August, the U.S.S.R.'s energy shortfall is being made worse by reduced power generation from nuclear plants. Antinuclear activists have virtually blocked construction of new nuclear power capacity and crippled urgently needed renovation of existing plants.

Spare parts and equipment for all types of power plants are in extremely short supply. What's more. the government has lifted price controls on such hardware while capping electricity prices, making it difficult for power plants to pay for needed equipment even when it is available.

Miners' strikes have forced some coal burning power plants to switch to oil or natural gas fuel-when it can be obtained.

And a substantial number of generating units have had to shut down.

Russian republic enterprises, which produce most of the U.S.S.R.'s oil and gas, are reluctant to sell these fuels to other republics for almost worthless rubles. They have refused to renew many conventional contracts with non-Russian power plants, preferring to barter hydrocarbons for food, materials, equipment, and consumer goods.

Even though power generating capacity could increase output slightly this year, the fuel shortage may cut production by 15-20 billion kwhr, Izvestia warned.

CONSERVATION MOVES

Soviet authorities are considering decrees to reduce industrial consumption of energy by 10-15% this winter if necessary. This will require laying off many workers and paying unemployment compensation, a recent innovation in the U.S.S.R., from the central government's budget, which is showing a far larger deficit than forecast.

Izvestia emphasized that conservation is the most logical solution to the U.S.S.R.'s energy shortage. Soviet energy consumption per unit of gross national product is 25% higher than in the U.S. and 80% higher than in Germany.

"This gap is growing," the newspaper said. "We could conserve one third of our energy use but lack the technology to do so."

The Soviet defense industry remains an inordinately large consumer of energy. Meanwhile. the oil and coal industries are deprived of the equipment and materials they need to hike production,

Despite the critical lack of hard currency, fuel exports must be strictly limited to overcome domestic energy shortages, but this hasn't been done, Izvestia said. It suggested that production of some "energy devouring" products such as aluminum might have to be curtailed.

The U.S.S.R. may resort to extreme measures to cope with potential energy shortages this winter, Soviet authorities said. Those measures might include use of such "local fuels" as wood and peat.

UKRAINE SITUATION

The Ukraine, second most populous republic in the U.S.S.R., is hard hit by falling nuclear power production and reduced deliveries of oil and gas from the Russian republic. In the past, the Ukraine has sold surplus electrical power to other areas of the nation.

In September, three of seven power units at the Ukraine's big Zaporozhe thermal power plant were not operating because of coal shortages and inability to obtain replacement equipment. Two thirds of the plant's fuel and equipment suppliers are outside the Ukraine and no longer feel obligated to make deliveries to enterprises in other republics following declarations of independence or autonomy.

The Zaphorozhe plant's five coal fired power generating units require 12,000 tons/day of coal, but they are receiving only 3,000 tons/day. Efforts to obtain substitute boiler fuel from the Russian republic's Ufa refinery have been "difficult."

Two of five units of the nearby Zaporozhe nuclear power station have been shut down because equipment required for maintenance and repair could not be obtained. The plant is experiencing heavy financial losses because the price of its electricity can't be raised.

Izvestia reports that insufficient deliveries of gas and fuel oil from the Russian republic idled at least 20% of the Ukraine's power generating capacity last winter, and conditions have worsened since then. The Ukrainian Cabinet of Ministers recently decreed strict conservation measures for the republic's industries and individual consumers, as well as at least a 20% cut in electricity exports to other Soviet republics.

Izvestia warned that the Ukraine's reduction of electricity exports to other Soviet republics could result in further cuts in fuel deliveries to the Ukraine.

Elsewhere, the energy situation in Armenia is especially acute. In early September, fuel oil storage tanks and underground gas storage reservoirs were less than one-third full.

Gasoline deliveries were only 30% of requirements, and less than a 1 day reserve was on hand.

Coal demand was being met by only 50-60%, and road repair was almost at a standstill for lack of asphalt. Armenian authorities said prospects for obtaining more fuel are bleak.