WATCHING WASHINGTON OTA'S VIEW OF ENERGY

On the surface, there appears little reason for Congress to be debating national energy strategy legislation,

And some observers think that lack of motivation may be the greatest barrier to passage of an energy bill this session.

Today, who could ask for lower gasoline prices, lower natural gas prices, or more ample supplies?

But the congressional Office of Technology Assessment thinks today's complacent market hides less benign long term trends.

MAJOR DANGERS

In a new study, "Energy Technology Choices," OTA said, "The energy crisis of the early 1970s has evolved into a more complex and subtle national situation that still entails major dangers.

"Some fuels, gasoline in particular, are cheaper now in real terms, and none shows any signs of imminent resource constraints. Energy is used with far greater efficiency than 20 years ago and with less environmental damage per unit of consumption.

"However, the long term problems of our growing energy use-accumulating environmental degradation, the national security costs of imported oil supplies, and a worsening trade imbalance from rising levels of oil imports-are as intractable as ever."

Improved energy technology has led to the present inattention to energy problems. Such technology allowed the economy to grow 39% from 1972 to 1985 with essentially no increase in energy consumption

OTA said energy policy makers currently face three uncertainties: how to assure a long term supply of reasonably priced, convenient fuels, how to protect the country against oil import disruptions, and how to mitigate carbon dioxide emissions if global warming concerns require it.

"Failure to address these uncertainties could have very serious implications eventually," it said. "Complacency on energy issues entails a major risk for the country on all counts-security, economic, and environmental.

"High energy prices in the 1970s and early 1980s were largely responsible for rapid development and implementation of energy saving technologies that reduced energy demand and led to today's relatively low energy prices. Conversely, these low prices, while good for the economy, are limiting further efficiency, resource exploration, and alternative fuel investments.

"Energy investments, whether supply or demand, typically last for decades. Thus, the energy system is slow to change, and problems that are unlikely to be critical for 20 years or more will be far more difficult to manage then if not addressed now."

NO SINGLE SOLUTION

OTA found no single solution and said all options entail some compromises.

But it noted, "Opportunities to improve energy efficiency are closest to the ideal. Many cost effective opportunities exist, even at today's energy prices. Such investments are generally environmentally beneficial because they reduce energy production and consumption."

And it said the U.S. should encourage alternative fuels, even though they are more costly than fossil fuels now.

The OTA report went on to recommend a series of policy options for legislators. But its primary value may be to remind congressmen why they are rewriting energy policy in the first place.