COMMUNIST/EASTERN EUROPE OUTPUT SLIDE BIGGEST EVER

Oil production in Communist and former Communist nations registered its steepest annual decline ever in 1990. Crude and condensate flow plunged to an estimated 14.546 million b/d from a revised 15.273 million b/d in 1989. Last year's combined Communist/eastern Europe oil output was the lowest since 1979, and another big drop is expected in 1991. The U.S.S.R. remained by far the world's largest oil producer 1990. However, crude/condensate flow fell to 11.39 million b/d last year from

March 11, 1991

3 min read

Oil production in Communist and former Communist nations registered its steepest annual decline ever in 1990.

Crude and condensate flow plunged to an estimated 14.546 million b/d from a revised 15.273 million b/d in 1989. Last year's combined Communist/eastern Europe oil output was the lowest since 1979, and another big drop is expected in 1991.

SOVIET PLUNGE

The U.S.S.R. remained by far the world's largest oil producer 1990. However, crude/condensate flow fell to 11.39 million b/d last year from 12.14 million b/d in 1989.

Peak Soviet oil production was 12.48 million b/d in 1987. Flow slipped to 12.45 million b/d in 1988, and output losses have accelerated since then.

Last year's 750,000 b/d skid in Soviet crude/condensate flow far exceeded all previous annual U.S.S.R. production drops since World War II. In 1984, output fell by 110,000 b/d, in 1985 by 320,000 b/d, and in 1989 by 31 0,000 b/d.

As in 1989, the U.S.S.R.'s biggest 1990 oil production losses occurred in western Siberia's Tyumen province, which accounts for more than 63% of the nation's crude/condensate flow. Tyumen's oil output dropped by 600,000 b/d last year, with many wells shut in because of pipe and equipment shortages.

OTHER COMMUNIST BLOC

Combined oil production in eastern European and Communist nations other than the Soviet Union rose apparently no more than 25,000 b/d in 1990.

China, the No. 2 Communist oil producer, hiked flow in 1990 a meager 14,000 b/d to 2.770 million b/d. That is less than the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency's estimated 1988 Chinese flow of 2.772 million b/d and far below Beijing's original target of 3 million b/d for 1990.

Supergiant Daqing field in China's northeast region again produced more than 1 million b/d in 1990. It was the 12th straight year that flow from China's largest field has exceeded 1 million b/d.

Beijing officials hope to boost oil production to 3.4 million b/d by 2000. This target can be reached only by sharply increasing offshore production and/or successfully tapping the huge potential in Northwest China's Tarim basin.

Romania, which suffered through political and economic chaos in 1990, saw oil production decline for the third successive year to about 160,000 b/d. That compares with a peak of 294,000 b/d in 1976.

Viet Nam made the largest Communist oil flow gain last year. Hanoi reported its only producing field, Bach Ho (White Tiger) in the South China Sea, averaged 54,000 b/d in 1990, exceeding target. This year's goal is 70,000 b/d, and some projections put 1995 Vietnamese oil flow at 100,000 b/d or more.

Other estimated 1990 Communist oil production includes: Yugoslavia 63,000 b/d, Albania 40,000 b/d, Hungary 39,000 b/d, Cuba 15,000 b/d, (former) East Germany 6,000 b/d (mostly condensate), Bulgaria 4,000 b/d, Czechoslovakia 3,000 b,d, and Poland 2,000 b/d.