SURGE OF WILDCAT DRILLING SEEN FOR VIET NAM

Exploratory drilling in Viet Nam will peak next year at 15 wells, says County Natwest Woodmac's Southeast Asia Oil Report.

The report also predicts production, including production from probable field developments and future offshore discoveries, could climb to about 500,000 b/d by the turn of the century from 70,000 b/d this year from a single field, Bach Ho (White Tiger) in the South China Sea (see map, OGJ, July 15, p. 25).

Meantime, the Soviets have disclosed that just five prolific wells accounted for most of the production from Bach Ho field as late as 1990.

WOODMAC'S REPORT

Woodmac expects Vietnamese activity to focus on the South Con Son and Vung Tau basins during 1992-95, when a total of 44 wells will be drilled at a cost of $350-450 million.

The Soviet-Vietnamese joint venture Vietsovpetro has been concentrating its resources on developing Bach Ho. There are no other fields under development. But Woodmac identified two other offshore oil fields, Dai Hung (Big Bear) and Rong (Dragon), that could be developed during the next 4-5 years.

European and Japanese groups have submitted proposals to Petrovietnam to develop the larger of the two, Dai Hung, which has reserves of 500-700 million bbl.

Although details of the proposals are confidential, Woodmac said early production is believed to be Petrovietnam's key development criteria. To attain early production, phased development is likely and, depending on negotiations, production could start by early 1995.

Details are scant on proposed development of Rong, with 50-100 million bbl of reserves, but Woodmac said it could be developed with a floating production system and produce first oil late in 1994.

The two fields could be producing about 185,000 b/d by 1998 with 160,000 b/d coming from Dai Hung.

Woodmac understands commercial gas production has started from a small onshore field at Tien Hai, about 43 miles east of Hanoi. Details are vague, it said, and production is thought to average about 3.4 MMcfd.

Vietsovpetro is believed to be investigating the possibility of selling associated gas from Bach Ho, which is currently flared at a rate of 17 MMcfd.

Initial proposals envisage moving the gas by pipeline into Thai waters to link into Petroleum Authority of Thailand's system. That is unlikely to happen before the turn of the century.

BACH HO PRODUCTION

In an interview with a Russian drilling engineer assigned to Vietsovpetro, the Moscow magazine Neftianik (Oil Worker) said work on Bach Ho's No. 1 well was ordered stopped after a February 1986 Vietsovpetro geological and technical conference.

It was then decided that tests of the well's potential pay zones had not been encouraging enough to warrant further study and investment.

Later, A.M. Funtov, a senior Russian drilling engineer, persuaded Vietsovpetro's directors to carry out more tests on 1 Bach Ho. It then yielded 800 metric tons/day (5,840 b/d) from an interval below 3,000 m (9,842 ft).

A second well had an even larger flow, Neftianik reported. The next three wells also were prolific.

White Tiger began production in June 1986. By last spring, the field's flow had reached 75,000 b/d, according to East-West Center, Honolulu.

During the first several years of production, Bach Ho's "big five" wells provided as much as 80% of the field's total production, Neftianik said.

Vietsovpetro had installed eight platforms in Bach Ho by June 1991. Each platform reportedly had 15-16 producing wells except for the eighth structure. Four more platforms are slated for installation in Bach Ho by 1995 to enable the field to achieve peak production.

Hanoi officials believe Viet Nam's South China Sea oil flow can reach at least 124,000 b/d next year. Target for 1995 is 160,000 b/d.

Moscow press reports express concern that the U.S.S.R. will play a steadily decreasing role in Viet Nam's offshore exploration and development in the near term. The Soviets do not have the investment capital to compete with companies from other nations that have started work in the area.

Funtov said this is a major setback for the U.S.S.R. Before leaving Viet Nam for home, he told Neftianik there is no doubt the entire Asiatic Outer Continental Shelf from Sakhalin to Indonesia has the potential for large oil and gas field discoveries.