Industry's comparatively strong exploration and development campaign in Thailand will continue for about 2 years before tailing away.
So predicts Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd., Edinburgh.
The company expects Thailand's 1995 exploration wells drilled to number 36, with a further total of 60 drilled this year and next, after which exploration drilling will decline.
The analyst predicts industry will spend $2.5 billion on Thai projects during the next 6 years or so, with much of the work scheduled in gas projects.
Wood Mackenzie estimated Thailand's oil production at 61,000 b/d for 1995 and forecast a gain to an average 97,000 b/d by 2002. Gas production, 1.007 bcfd last year, will reach 2.1 bcfd by 2004.
Reserves, licenses
Wood Mackenzie said Thailand's estimated reserves stood at 543 million bbl of oil and condensate and 12.8 tcf of gas at the start of 1995.
Most of Thailand's reserves lie in the Gulf of Thailand.
The analyst said, "Although the gulf is a relatively mature area, it still contains most of the country's remaining reserves. On an oil equivalent basis, gas accounts for some 83% of the country's remaining petroleum reserves."
At the end of 1995, 26 petroleum licenses were active in Thailand, excluding three in the Malaysia-Thailand joint development area.
Late last year, the Thai government launched a 14th licensing round, offering nine blocks in the Andaman Sea.
Another 102 blocks across the country are expected to be offered early this year as part of Thailand's 15th licensing round.
Drilling
In 1994, industry drilled 34 exploration wells in Thailand, an 80% increase from the 1993 level, mainly because of extensive appraisal programs by Total SA, Unocal Thailand Ltd., and Maersk Olie & Gas AS.
Among key wells in 1995, Wood Mackenzie cited Maersk's Benchamas-1 wildcat on Block B8/32. This well flowed 44.7 MMcfd of gas and 4,835 b/d of oil and condensate.
Maersk was last reported testing its first appraisal of the find, Benchamas-3. It spudded another appraisal well in December.
In August 1995, Unocal drilled its Ubon-2 appraisal well as a step-out to its Ubon-1 discovery, which found oil and gas in January 1992. Ubon-2 flowed at a combined rate of 8 MMcfd and 1,830 b/d of liquids on test.
Unocal carried out extensive appraisals of its Pailin and Trat discoveries. Other appraisal programs were conducted by Pogo Producing Co. at the Tantawan discovery and by Total in the Bongkot area.
Offshore focus
Wood Mackenzie reckons Thai exploration will continue to focus on the Gulf of Thailand during the next few years, although the 14th licensing round is expected to spur limited activity in the Andaman Sea.
Oil companies have spent $6.2 billion in 1995 dollars on upstream developments in Thailand since 1980, Wood Mackenzie said
Capital outlay was expected to be $330 million for 1995, up $120 million from 1994 because of Total's spending in phase two of its Bongkot development and Unocal's development work in its Gulf of Thailand fields.
"Overall, including the effects of future discoveries, we estimate the industry could spend $2.5 billion on upstream developments over the next 6 years," Wood Mackenzie said.
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