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AGA: U.S. gas use to achieve record in 1997

Dec. 23, 1996

Aga's 1997 Gas Forecast [99736 bytes] The American Gas Association predicts U.S. natural gas use will set a record 23.2 quadrillion BTUs (quads) in 1997. AGA Chairman Tom Fisher said, "In fact, the estimated 1996 consumption of just over 22.7 quads may break the 1972 record, but we won't know for sure until the Energy Department final numbers are available next year. There's a high probability of that happening."

Aga's 1997 Gas Forecast [99736 bytes]

The American Gas Association predicts U.S. natural gas use will set a record 23.2 quadrillion BTUs (quads) in 1997.

AGA Chairman Tom Fisher said, "In fact, the estimated 1996 consumption of just over 22.7 quads may break the 1972 record, but we won't know for sure until the Energy Department final numbers are available next year. There's a high probability of that happening."

Fisher, who is also chairman, president, and CEO of Nicor Inc., Naperville, Ill., said the AGA forecast assumes normal weather, a 2.5% growth rate in the economy, and crude oil prices averaging $20.50/bbl.

The AGA forecast projects low, base, and high case scenarios for 1997 gas demand, with low case demand decreasing by 3.7% and high case demand rising 5.9% from 1996 levels.

Fisher said AGA's prediction of record gas consumption stems from advances in end-use technologies and market opportunities created by regulatory initiatives such as electric industry restructuring.

Industrial use of gas is projected to increase to 9.25 quads in 1997 from 8.94 quads in 1996. Fisher said, "This increase is a result of continued growth in U.S. manufacturing, along with new gas-fired technologies that capture market share in this sector." Industrial demand accounts for about 43% of all natural gas consumed in the U.S.

Commercial demand for gas is predicted to increase modestly to 3.4 quads.

Fisher said, "If normal weather conditions prevail in 1997-meaning slightly warmer temperatures than in 1996-residential demand for gas is expected to drop a little from the estimated 5.4 quads in 1996."

AGA said electric utility demand for gas is projected to rise to 3.2 quads in 1997 but could be as low as 3 quads, depending on the availability of hydroelectric power.

Mike Baly, AGA president, said that U.S. natural gas storage is down 10% from a year ago but that should not affect supplies this winter.

He said most of the shortfall is in producing regions, where additional supplies are readily available from producing wells and where storage operators may have held too much gas in reserve in recent winters.