Soaring demand for refined products is expected to spike Brazil's oil import bill by 22% this year.
Officials of state petroleum company Petroleo Brasileiro SA said that the tab for imports of refined products by the company should increase by yearend 1996 to $6.3 billion from $5.18 billion in 1995.
Aurilio Fernandes Lima, Petrobras director, told OGJ, "This increase is mainly due to an expansion of domestic oil products consumption, particularly of gasoline. This year we are consuming 17% more gasoline than last year."
The other factor is the increase in international oil prices in 1996.
Refineries lagging
Lima noted that the increase in refined products imports was unrelated to routine maintenance turnarounds at Brazil's refineries.
"The 10 Brazilian refineries and one asphalt plant are operating normally," he said.
However, the rising demand for refined products imports points to a need to continue upgrading and expanding Brazil's refining capacity (see related story, p. 22).
"Petrobras needs to invest around $800 million/year to expand its refining infrastructure," Lima said.
However, these investments are on hold until Brazil's post-monopoly regulatory framework is approved by Congress.
Lima cited Petrobras' current project to double products output at its Mataripe, Bahia state, refinery, at a cost of about $362 million.
The refinery is expected to produce 268,000 b/d of refined products beginning in January 1997, compared with the present output of 130,000 b/d. Most of the Mataripe outlays are earmarked for a new catalytic cracker.
Rising imports
From January to September, Brazilian crude oil and products imports totaled $4.27 billion.
In September alone, Brazilian oil imports totaled $665 million, a jump of 70% from a year ago.
At present, Petrobras' maximum output of refined products is 1.4 million b/d, and consumption in September reached a record 1.6 million b/d.
Much of increase has come in diesel imports because, "We are going through a harvest period, which increases diesel consumption," Lima said.
Argentina is the main exporter of crude oil to Brazil, surpassing Saudi Arabia. From January to August (last data available), Argentine crude oil exports to Brazil totaled $550.3 million, an increase of 34% from the same period a year ago.
Today, Argentina is the source of almost 30% of Brazil's crude oil imports while Saudi Arabia is responsible for 27%. The Middle East as a whole supplies about 46% of Brazil's oil needs.
Trade deficit
Sources in Brazil point out that the increase in crude and oil products imports contributed a hike in Brazil's trade deficit, which totaled $1.6 billion last September.
Francisco Dornelles, Minister of Industry, Commerce and Tourism, plays down this fact: "Brazil is in a comfortable position. This year, we will receive $8 billion in direct foreign investments and will have no difficulty in administrating a deficit of $2.5-3 billion."
However, some executives worry about the trends in trade. From January to September 1996, exports totaled $35.8 billion, up a modest 4.92% from 1995, while imports slipped a mere 0.37% to $37.45 billion.
In recent years, Brazil has shown significant growth in exports, maintaining a healthier trade balance before the surge in its oil imports bill.
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