Watching Government The next 4 years

Although Bill Clinton has renewed his 4-year lease on the White House, he's likely to be annoyed by his headstrong neighbors down Pennsylvania Ave.-the Republican-controlled Congress.

What to expect

Here's what to expect the next 4 years in Washington:

Energy Sec. Hazel O'Leary will resign soon, perhaps by the time this magazine is printed. She deeply embarrassed the administration with her frequent and expensive international junkets.

The Washington rumor mill has developed such a long list of potential successors for O'Leary it's hard to judge which, if any, may have the inside track.

Some of the rumored candidates are Deputy Sec. Charles Curtis, former Deputy Sec. Bill White, former Rep. Phil Sharp, Rep. Bill Richardson (D-N.M.), and retiring Sen. Bennett Johnston (D-La.).

But it's clear the next secretary will determine the focus of the administration's energy policy; the White House won't get involved as long as oil and gas supplies are adequate and price increases are moderate.

Clinton's election ensured the Energy Department would not be dismantled, as Republican challenger Robert Dole had proposed, during the next 4 years.

(On election day, high winds were reported on Independence Ave., but it was only the collective sigh of relief at DOE headquarters.)

Interior Sec. Bruce Babbitt and EPA Administrator Carol Browner are considered secure in their jobs, but that's no guarantee they will remain. The last two times incumbent Presidents were reelected, three fourths of their cabinets changed during their second terms.

Watch for Alaska's congressmen to continue to press for oil exploration on the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, probably using budget bills as the legislative vehicles. The administration will strongly resist.

Oil and gas lobbyists will focus on tax, electric restructuring, and public lands access issues in the next Congress.

They were quietly delighted that pro-industry congressmen like Sen. Frank Murkowski (R-Alas.), Don Young (R-Alas.), Bill Archer (R-Tex.), and Ken Calvert (R-Calif.) will remain chairmen of committees important to the industry.

Some big environmental bills will be up again: reauthorizations of the Clean Air Act Amendments, Clean Water Act, and Comprehensive Environmental Response Cleanup and Liability Act (Superfund). If they are to pass, the Democrats and Republicans must seek major compromises, as they did with the Safe Drinking Water Act this year.

Moderating Clinton

Generally, oil lobbyists expect the Republican-controlled Congress to moderate the actions of the Clinton administration, just as it has during the past 2 years.

So although the administration could propose a hydrocarbon usage tax as part of its forthcoming plan to curb global carbon dioxide emissions, it would be folly to send such a plan to Congress. Even a Democratic-controlled Congress spiked the administration's BTU tax 3 years ago.

And watch the White House to give pro-environmental Vice President Albert Gore even more prominence and a makeover as a moderate, as he is groomed to succeed Clinton in 2001.