Offshore oil production in Latin America is expected to rise 18% to a total of 221.4 million metric tons in 1999, while total offshore gas output is forecast to rise 48% to reach almost 55 billion cu m.
This is the prediction of Mackay Consultants, Inverness, Scotland, which foresees a rise of 28% in total offshore expenditure, to a total of $13.8 billion in 1999.
Three countries will account for almost nine tenths of the total spending, said Mackay: Brazil with a 38.6% share, Mexico with 35.9%, and Venezuela with 14.2%.
Three countries are seen to be offering new opportunities for oil and gas companies: Argentina, where exploration and production activity is seeing a revival; the Falkland Islands, where exploration is expected to take place for the first time; and Trinidad and Tobago, where development work is expected following recent exploration successes.
The analyst sees three important trends in the region:
- Privatization and deregulation of state oil and gas firms-Brazil having voted to end the Petrobras monopol; privatization of Petroperu under way; sale of most of the Argentine government's share in YPF SA completed; and other countries introducing privatization policies.
- Growth in gas production and consumption, particularly for electricity generation, with key projects including liquefied natural gas plants in Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago, and pipelines increasing gas trade among the countries.
- A move into deeper waters, most evident off Brazil where the Marlim P-18 facility is said to have set a production water depth record of 1,027 m.
Mackay said the region has considerable gas potential, constrained by lack of markets: "As these are developed, notably for generating electricity, there should continue to be very high rates of growth in production."
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