Global warming and El Niño

U.S. Vice-Pres. Al Gore and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have made a climatological breakthrough worthy of attention from serious scientists around the world. New analysis of the warm, wet first 5 months of 1998 shows that global warming may be aggravating the natural warming phenomenon known as El Niño.

"Although El Niños occur cyclically, independent of any long-term warming trend, there is observational evidence to suggest that rising global temperatures may be linked to stronger, more frequent El Niños," says a June 8 announcement by Gore and NOAA.

Broad conclusions

Most scientists have been reluctant to hypothesize about how global warming might affect El Niño. Contrary to the claims of Gore and others eager to slay environmental dragons, the extent and causes of observed warming are very uncertain. And because the climate is so complex, most scientists hesitate to draw broad conclusions from two observed effects that may have nothing to do with one another and 5 months' worth of temperature data.

Of course, most scientists aren't vice-presidents bucking for promotion, craving a reason to tax fossil fuels into oblivion.

Just 2 months before its joint announcement with Gore, NOAA itself dealt cautiously with the relationship between El Niño and global warming. In a special climate and weather summary dated Apr. 7, the agency said, "The tendency toward a warmer, wetter world of recent decades has continued, amplified by the massive El Niño event. How the El Niño may be related to global warming is not clear."

The caution of that statement comports even with political thought up to now. The latest report of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, basis for the international protocol calling for cuts in greenhouse-gas emissions signed last December in Kyoto, Japan, contains this disclaimer: "Overall, there is no evidence that extreme weather events or climate variability (have) increased in a global sense through the 20th century."

So Gore and NOAA break new scientific ground when they note that El Niños have increased in frequency and intensity during the past several decades in a trend somehow linked to global warming. Atop that observation are those global temperature averages for January-May 1998, which "far exceed previous records for those months"-at least in a data series going back to 1880.

"This report," Gore said, "is a reminder once again that global warming is real and that unless we act we can expect more extreme weather in the years ahead." Gore is partly right. The people of the world can indeed expect extreme weather. It's part of nature. But the vice-president presumes too much when he asserts that political action can do anything about it.

Here, from the June 8 statement, is the analysis on which Gore bases his call to action: "It cannot be determined from current evidence whether El Niños are becoming more frequent or more intense as a direct result of global warming. It appears evident, however, that the effects of El Niño could be compounded by rising global temperatures. In other words, the extreme weather and climate conditions related to naturally occuring El Niño events could be exacerbated by an ongoing global warming trend. The additional heat near the Earth's surface powers the energy required to evaporate enormous amounts of water. This affects the entire atmospheric water and energy balance."

The usual ring of scientific precision is missing here. In fact, the passage crackles with hints of propaganda.

Weather and climate

The first 5 months of 1998 were hot and wet in many parts of the world. The next 5 months might be cool and dry. Or they might be hot and wet.

It doesn't matter. Gore will spin either circumstance to justify his agenda for restructuring energy economics and reordering people's lives. And in climatological terms, the next 5 months' weather means as much as a drip from a sunlit glacier.

Copyright 1998 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.