The U.S. Energy Information Administration predicts the East Asian economic crisis will continue to affect world oil prices well into the next decade, with prices for 2000 forecast to be as much as $5.50/bbl (1997 dollars) lower than projections made a year ago.
It says growth in world oil demand will slow in the near term but resume after 2000.
EIA Administrator Jay Hakes said, "The cyclical impacts of the global slowdown in oil demand growth will keep prices from fully recovering to previously expected levels until 2007. However, for projections farther out, to 2010 or 2020, we're seeing little change this year from last year's estimates for oil prices and other major energy indicators."
EIA said U.S. carbon dioxide emissions from energy use are projected to increase 33% from 1990 levels by 2010 and by 47% in 2020, reaching 1.79 billion metric tons in 2010 and 1.97 billion tons in 2020 vs. 1.35 billion tons in 1990. Those projections, which assume current laws and regulations, show that growing energy demand amid declines in nuclear power will be met mostly by fossil fuels, with renewable energy demand rising at an average rate of only 0.8%/year through 2020.
U.S. oil imports will continue to rise, with net imports providing 65% of U.S. supply in 2020, up from 49% in 1997. Transportation demand for petroleum will continue to increase, because efficiency improvements in vehicles will not offset growing travel.
Natural gas wellhead prices are projected to increase an average of 0.8%/ year through 2020, from $2.23/Mcf in 1997 to $2.68 in 2020. U.S. gas demand, especially for electricity generation, will increase rapidly, but technological improvements in exploration and production will moderate the effect on prices from higher demand. EIA said that, despite the increased share of gas as a source of electricity, from 14% of generation in 1997 to 33% in 2020, coal will remain the dominant power fuel.
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