The global energy industry will continue to be dominated by fossil fuels for the next 25 years, but the world's growing population and energy demand present huge challenges.
Delegates attending the Offshore Northern Seas conference in Stavanger heard on Aug. 25 how fossil fuels now account for more than 90% of global energy consumption, yet conditions call for more use of renewables.
Setting out the main points of current debate, Kjell Magne Bondevik, prime minister of Norway, said energy demand is expected to grow slowly in the developed world, with most future growth coming in developing countries.
"These countries," said Bondevik, "choose energy sources that best support their economic development. This is likely to include the utilization of indigenous natural resources, such as the substantial coal reserves in both China and India.
"Improving the living standard of growing populations depends, among other things, on ample supplies of energy. In the long and, hopefully in the medium term, however, I am convinced that renewable energy will play a growing role."
Bondevik said there is growing concern about the world ecosystem's ability to sustain the anticipated growth in population and material consumption.
"On the one hand," he said, "there are those who argue that the world has clearly sustained itself so far; that there is, therefore, no need for any special action, provided the self-correcting forces of the market are functioning.
"In a world of rapidly expanding population and consumption, however, I do not believe that we can adequately project past sustainability onto the future.
"There are those who argue that the scale and nature of human activities are already unsustainable, and that we must abandon current lifestyles. This provides a timely warning about the possibility of irreversible damage to the natural systems on which we depend."
Bondevik advocated taking account of the human capacity to adapt and progress: "This includes the development of new national and international policies, technologies, and methods that transform the way we interact with nature."
While the energy industry has improved its own environmental performance and reduced the damaging effects of its products, Bondevik said new measures will continue to be desired.
Proven oil reserves have grown by half over the past 20 years, despite cumulative consumption of more than 200 billion bbl, while gas reserves have grown even more quickly.
"Yet the cost of developing new fossil fuel reserves is likely to rise," said Bondevik. "Alternative energy supplies-from wind, biomass, and other sources-will become increasingly competitive.
"The shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources could, in the next century, be as fundamental as that from coal to oil and then to gas in this century."
Industry view
An industry view of how to achieve sustainable development was given by Wayne W. Allen, chairman and CEO of Phillips Petroleum Co."Only by building healthy econ- omies," said Allen, "in which people can continuously improve their standard of living, can we also build a healthy environment.
"Energy, economic development, and the environment are all at the heart of sustainable development, and all must be viewed together. Unfortunately, there is a growing belief that these are separate issues in conflict with each other."
Behind this belief, Allen cited projections of rapidly growing population and energy use: the world population is expected to increase by 2 billion in the next 20 years, while the International Energy Agency predicts that energy use will rise by 30% over the next 10 years.
"I see several steps we can take immediately," said Allen. "These are basic, common-sense approaches that are already ingrained in the environmental ethic we all share.
"Over the short term, we can continue to emphasize energy conservation and encourage greater energy efficiencies. We must also continue to develop cleaner-burning fuels and to increase the transfer of more energy-efficient technologies to the developing world, particularly countries in Asia where industrial and population growth is expected to be the greatest."
Allen advised investing more in research, both to minimize emissions and to improve our understanding of greenhouse gases and their potential effects on climate change. Similarly, more information is needed about the role oceans and other sinks play in reducing greenhouse gas accumulations.
"Today we are producing the cleanest fuels ever," said Allen. "As we look to the future, I am convinced technology will continue to shape our industry and play a major role in the way we meet the world's future energy needs and the public's environmental demands.
"Through technology, I believe we will develop even cleaner-burning processes for fossil fuels, including coal, and safer and more acceptable nuclear power, as well as biomass. I believe renewables will also become a growing part of the energy mix as technology addresses some of the existing cost and deliverability problems."
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