RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS TO SHOW LITTLE EFFECT
Russian oil exports to countries outside the Commonwealth of Independent States probably won't be large enough to have a major effect on the world market during the next two decades, an official study indicates.
The Moscow newspaper Business World Weekly cited Russian Ministry of Fuel and Energy data projecting the nation's total exports of crude and products, including deliveries to C.I.S. states, at 3.1-3.8 million b/d in 2010. That compares with 5.9 million b/d in 1990, an expected 2.34-2.6 million b/d in 1995, and 2.3-3 million b/d in 2000.
Of the total crude and products exports projected for 2010, 1.8-2.24 million b/d likely will go to non-C.I.S. countries, down from 2.7 million b/d in 1990. Estimates are 940,000 b/d to 1.1 million b/d for 1995 and 1.1-1.7 million b/d in 2000.
Russian crude and products exports to other C.I.S. states are expected to be 1.4-1.5 million b/d in 1995, 1.2-1.3 million b/d in 2000, and 1.3-1.4 million b/d in 2010.
By comparison, Russian crude and products deliveries to other republics in the former Soviet Union were 3.2 million b/d in 1990.
CORRECTED REPORT
Russia's State Statistical Committee admits that it erred in reporting earlier that the nation's oil exports declined during the first 9 months of 1992. According to a more recent Russian report, the nation's crude export volume to non-C.I.S. customers rose 14% to more than 1.3 million b/d last year if deliveries by nongovernment organizations are added to those announced for the state oil firm Nafta Moskva.
The Business World Weekly survey showed that Russian crude and condensate production in 2010 likely will be 7.4-8 million b/d, far below the 1990 figure of 10.36 million b/d, 9.22 million b/d in 1991, and 7.85 million b/d in 1992.
A further decline in Russian oil flow to about 7 million b/d this year and 6.34-6.8 million b/d in 1995 is expected. Production is seen rising to 6.6-7.2 million b/d in 2000 and 7.4-8 million b/d in 2010.
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