RUSSIA'S PETROLEUM INDUSTRY TO SEE FURTHER DETERIORATION THIS YEAR
All sectors of Russia's petroleum industry will experience further setbacks in 1993, says a detailed assessment made by two of the nation's leading economists.
Writing in the Moscow business daily Delovoi Mir, Aleksandr Frenkel and Valery Galitsky forecast a decline in Russian crude and condensate production from about 7.85 million b/d in 1992 to 6.79 million b/d this year. They expect crude flow to fall to 6.6 million b/d from 7.66 million b/d, with condensate production holding about steady at close to 190,000 b/d.
If the forecast is correct, Russia's crude and condensate production this year will be down about 40% from 1988's peak of nearly 11.34 million b/d. The nation's oil production is no longer the world's largest, having fallen below Saudi Arabia's estimated production of 8.2 million b/d last year.
Russia produced close to 11-04 million b/d of crude and condensate in 1989, 10.36 million b/d in 1990, and 9.22 million b/d in 1991.
Russia's gas flow will fall from about 22.56 tcf in 1992 to 22.2 tcf in 1993, the economists predict. Russian gas production reached a record 22.7 tcf in 1991.
DOWNSTREAM SECTORS
The forecast also sees a continued slide in Russia's primary refining to 4.4 million b/d of products this year from 5.05 million b/d in 1992. Gasoline production will drop to 822,000 b/d from 854,000 b/d, diesel fuel to less than 1.14 million b/d from 1.3 million b/d, and heavy fuel oil to 1.54 million b/d from 1.75 million b/d.
A continued steep decline in petrochemical production is expected in 1993.
Russia's gross domestic product is projected to plummet 27% this year vs. 1992. Overall 1993 capital investment likely will fall 10% from 1992 and 55% from the 1991 level.
Foreign trade volume will decline an estimated 25-30% in 1993. It's predicted that while the value of Russian fuel and energy exports this year may fall, the proportion of foreign sales in this category will jump sharply.
Fuel and energy represented about 50% of the nation's foreign sales during the first 10 months of 1992 but likely will climb to 60-70% in 1993, the economists predicted.
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