Last summer's widely publicized reports of increasing oil exports by the Commonwealth of Independent States were misinterpreted as signaling a turnaround in slumping worldwide petroleum sales by the former U.S.S.R.
In truth, the brief rise in C.I.S. oil exports was an aberration stemming almost entirely from several abnormally large tanker shipments to a few destinations in countries belonging to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Total C.I.S. oil exports are continuing the steep decline that began in 1989.
EXPORT VOLUMES
Latest data disclosed by Russia's State Statistical Committee show that Nafta Moskva, formerly the Soviet Union's state owned Soyuznefteeksport oil export monopoly, delivered 35.5 million metric tons (946,000 b/d) of crude to foreign customers during the first 9 months of 1992. That's down 12% from the same 1991 period.
Russian exports of refined product plummeted more than 50%.
Crude exports by the former U.S.S.R. reached a record 2.885 million b/d in 1988. They skidded to 2.546 million b/d in 1989, 2.172 million b/d in 1990, and 1.032 million b/d in 1991.
Exports of refined products fell from a high of 1.22 million b/d in 1988 to 1.15 million b/d in 1989, about 1 million b/d in 1990, and 820,000 b/d in 1991.
Robert Ebel of the Center for Strategic and International Studies recently predicted gross C.I.S. oil exports of 1.5-1.6 million b/d for 1992. He estimated 1993 oil exports will be about 1.2 million b/d, including 900,000 b/d of crude and 300,000 b/d of products (OGJ, Nov. 16, 1992, p. 34).
Russia accounts for about 90% of C.I.S. crude and condensate production and an even larger share of legal oil exports. The State Statistical Committee clearly indicated that reduced oil exports were the most important factor in the nation's 35% overall drop in January-September 1992 foreign sales.
Because 49% of Russia's total exports during the first 9 months of 1991 consisted of fuel and energy, the blow to the nation's trade balance and hard currency revenues was devastating.
TRADE BALANCE
Total Russian exports in the first three quarters of 1992 were $24.2 billion, 35% less than in the same 1991 period. The September figure was even worse, with total exports down 42% from the same month in 1991.
With export revenues slumping, Russia was forced to slash imports. They tumbled to $26.4 billion during the first three quarters of 1992, off 17% from the comparable 1991 period.
The result was a negative Russian foreign trade balance of $2.2 billion vs. a positive balance of $5.7 billion in the first 9 months of 1991. Moscow is finding it increasingly difficult to pay its debts to foreign countries.
While total Russian foreign trade fell precipitously, commerce with the U.S. rose in January-September 1992. It totaled $2.3 billion, up 37%.
Russia hiked the proportion of its foreign trade with industrially developed nations to 60% from 57% in the first 9 months of 1991. Value of commerce with former Communist bloc countries dropped to 19% from 25% a year earlier.
Copyright 1993 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.
