THAI GAS DEMAND SEEN OUTSTRIPPING SUPPLY

Thailand's demand for gas will outstrip supplies in the late 1990s as rapid economic growth continues. Gas will be a cornerstone for Thai energy policy throughout the growth, although sources in neighboring countries need development. Thailand has emerged as one of the world's fastest growing economies, said Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd., Edinburgh, with growth topping 10%/Year.

May 3, 1993

4 min read

Thailand's demand for gas will outstrip supplies in the late 1990s as rapid economic growth continues.

Gas will be a cornerstone for Thai energy policy throughout the growth, although sources in neighboring countries need development.

Thailand has emerged as one of the world's fastest growing economies, said Wood Mackenzie Consultants Ltd., Edinburgh, with growth topping 10%/Year.

Thailand's energy needs will be met 67% by oil, 20% by gas, and 13% by coal and hydroelectric sources in 1993. By 2000, the analyst forecast, oil will fall to 62%, gas will rise to 28%, and coal and hydroelectric will slip to 10%.

Thai gas production will rise 25% from 1992 to average 1 bcfd by 1995. Including production from new discoveries, production could rise to 1.5 bcfd by 2000, up almost 90% from the 1992 level.

Increased gas flow output in the mid-1990s will be due largely to development of Gulf of Thailand fields.

SHORTFALL

By 1998, production from Gulf of Thailand fields will not be enough to offset the decline in today's fields. Wood Mackenzie said Thailand will need to import more than 1 bcfd by 2005 in the absence of future discoveries in the country.

Counting "necessarily tentative" estimates of future discoveries, about 750 MMcfd will need to be imported by 2005.

"There are no fields in Thailand we would classify as probable developments at present," Wood Mackenzie said.

The analyst estimates total recoverable oil reserves in Thailand at 320 million bbl, of which 47% remains. Total Thai gas reserves are placed at 6.3 tcf, of which 68% remains.

Gas production from today's fields and those under development will peak at 1.2 bcfd in 1996 and remain above the 1.1 bcfd mark until the turn of the century. Future discoveries could add 320 MMcfd by 2000.

PIPELINES

Petroleum Authority of Thailand (PTT) expects to complete in 1996 a 36 in. pipeline from Unocal Corp.'s Erawan field to Mab Ta Phud in Rayong province. This will parallel an existing line, doubling Gulf of Thailand export capacity to 1.6 bcfd.

Gas will enter the pipeline from three main sources: Unocal fields, Bongkot, and Pilong field in the Joint Development Area (JDA) under negotiation between Thailand and Malaysia.

PTT is laying a 110 mile 32 in. line with 700 MMcfd capacity from Bongkot to Erawan and a 24 in. diameter line to take the gas to Khanon, 100 miles away on the mainland, where a gas treatment plant will be built to fire a power station.

A further $700 million, 28 in. pipeline is planned for completion in 1997 to take gas 70 miles from Mab Ta Phud to the Ban Pakong power station.

IMPORTS

The Thai-Malay JDA in waters claimed by both countries is near agreement, leading Wood Mackenzie to predict drilling may resume in 1994. The firm estimates reserves of 3 tcf of gas and 200 million bbl of oil, with commercial gas production likely before 2000.

Total won exclusive exploration rights to about 2.5-3.3 tcf of undeveloped gas reserves in the Gulf of Martaban offshore Myanmar. The most likely gas market is the industrial west coast of Thailand. Total could have 250 MMcfd available for export by 2000.

An extension of Malaysia's Peninsular Gas Utilization pipeline is to be complete in 1996, passing near the Thai border at Perlis. The pipeline will tap about 27 tcf of gas off Malaya. PTT plans to start talks to move 300 MMcfd from Malaysia via Perlis by the turn of the century.

PTT expressed interest in taking gas by pipeline from Viet Nam's offshore Dai Hung field development, which holds about 400 million bbl of liquids and 2.5-3 tcf of associated and nonassociated gas. The 300 mile distance from Dai Hung to PTT pipeline infrastructure makes imports from Viet Nam unlikely before 2000.