FORMER COMMUNIST BLOC OIL PRODUCTION SHOWS RECORD SLIDE FOR 1992

Oil production in Communist and former Communist nations plunged a record 1.294 million b/d in 1992. Crude and condensate flow fell to about 12.16 million b/d vs. a revised 13-454 million b/d in 1991. Former Communist bloc oil production last year was the lowest since the estimated 11.85 million b/d in 1975. Largest previous annual production decline for Communist and former Communist nations was 1.085 million b/d in 1991.

March 8, 1993

3 min read

Oil production in Communist and former Communist nations plunged a record 1.294 million b/d in 1992.

Crude and condensate flow fell to about 12.16 million b/d vs. a revised 13-454 million b/d in 1991. Former Communist bloc oil production last year was the lowest since the estimated 11.85 million b/d in 1975.

Largest previous annual production decline for Communist and former Communist nations was 1.085 million b/d in 1991.

The Commonwealth of Independent States, which includes most of the former U.S.S.R.'s republics, again accounted for all of the net Communist/former Communist plunge in oil flow last year. C.I.S. production fell to an estimated 8.949 million b/d from 10.296 million b/d in 1991.

Peak crude/condensate flow in the former Soviet Union was about 12.48 million b/d in 1987 and 1988, followed by a drop to 12.03 million b/d in 1989 and 11.441 million b/d in 1990.

RUSSIA LEADS DECLINE

Within the C.I.S., by far the largest part of the oil production decline was in the Russian republic. Russia last year produced only 7.85 million b/d vs. 9.246 million b/d in 1991 and 10.324 million b/d in 1990.

Russian crude and condensate flow peaked at 11.39 million b/d in 1987. It was 10.846 million b/d during a brief slump in 1985 and 10.904 million b/d in 1980.

By last December, Russian oil production was down to 7.19 million b/d. A further drop was reported last January.

At the beginning of 1993, 13,800 oil wells, or 9.5% of Russia's total, were idle. By the end of the year, more than 22,000, or 15%, of Russia's potentially productive wells were shut in.

Prospects for early recovery in Russian crude and condensate flow are bleak. One Moscow report estimates Russia will produce about 7 million b/d this year and 6.34-6.8 million b/d in 1995.

CHINA, OTHER COUNTRIES

China, the second largest oil producer among Communist and former Communist nations, again showed a meager gain during 1992. Production rose only 1.25% to 2.835 million b/d from 2.8 million b/d in 1991.

Higher offshore production apparently accounted for almost all of the gain. Official reports indicate China's offshore fields yielded about 80,000 b/d in 1992 vs. 48,000 b/d in 1991.

Meanwhile, China's biggest onshore fields are struggling to maintain production levels achieved in recent years. Daqing, the nation's most prolific field, reportedly was having difficulty reaching regaining its 1991 volume of 1.112 million b/d.

Viet Nam was the only member of the former Communist bloc to show a big oil production gain in 1992. Flow rose from about 77,000 b/d in 1991 to an estimated 105,000 b/d last year.

Sharp gains are expected to continue at least through the end of the century. A British report estimates Viet Nam could produce as much as 500,000 b/d from its South China Sea fields by 2000.

All of Viet Nam's oil flow now comes from a single field, Bach Ho (White Tiger). But Dai Hung (Big Bear), a giant field discovered near Bach Ho, is slated for early development and is believed capable of producing about 250,000 b/d in 2000.

Former eastern European Communist bloc nations continue to experience falling oil production.

In the former Yugoslavia, Serbian oil production was placed at only 22,000 b/d. Last year's production in now independent Croatia is estimated at 43,000 b/d.

Other estimated 1992 Communist and former Communist oil production included Romania 135,000 b/d, Hungary 33,000 b/d, Albania 17,000 b/d, Cuba 15,000 b/d, Czechoslovakia 2,000 b/d, Poland 3,000 b/d, and Bulgaria 1,000 b/d.