WATCHING THE WORLD THE BLACK HOLE OF BAGHDAD

With David Knott from London Escape of information from Iraq appears almost as impossible as emergence of light from the black holes much discussed by astronomers. A thin trickle emerges, often more rumor than fact: Iran is shipping its oil through a Sudanese refinery. Iran took an oil shipment from Iraq in a dozen tanker trucks. Iraq produces 600,000 b/d of oil, with some exports to Jordan.

April 26, 1993

3 min read

Escape of information from Iraq appears almost as impossible as emergence of light from the black holes much discussed by astronomers.

A thin trickle emerges, often more rumor than fact:

Iran is shipping its oil through a Sudanese refinery.
Iran took an oil shipment from Iraq in a dozen tanker trucks.
Iraq produces 600,000 b/d of oil, with some exports to Jordan.

The United Nations Security Council agreed late in March to retain its embargo on Iraqi oil exports until Iraq stopped developing weapons of mass destruction, accepted Kuwait's right to exist, and ended repression of Iraqi minority groups.

Shortly before that, Barazan al-Tikriti, Iraq's ambassador to the U.N., said Iraq will survive without oil earnings "...tied to conditions that infringe on the sovereignty of the country and the dignity of the people."

Seyed Mehdi Hosseini, adviser to Iran's minister of petroleum, told a London conference Iraq can increase productive capacity to 3.5 million b/d by 2000 from the current 2 million b/d.

EXPORT ROUTES

Fadhil Chalabi, executive director of London's Centre for Global Energy Studies, warned the longer the current Iraqi stalemate lasts, the greater the risk of the country collapsing completely and destabilizing the region.

Iran destroyed most of Iraq's seaborne export facilities during the Iran-Iraq war in the early 1980s. About 600,000 b/d of capacity remains. There are three onshore export pipelines: a 1.65 million b/d capacity line to the eastern Mediterranean via Turkey, one with similar capacity to the Red Sea via Saudi Arabia, and one to the Mediterranean across Syria.

The Syrian route was closed by the Syrian government during the Iran-Iraq war and has been virtually abandoned. The Saudi government is unlikely to encourage Iraqi exports across its territory, having gained market share from embargoes on Iraqi production.

ACCORD NEEDED

That leaves the Turkish route. This crosses Kurdish controlled territory in Iraq, now enjoying protected independence from Baghdad after Saddam Hussein's oppression of the Kurds. Although Turkey wants Iraqi oil to flow its way, the pipeline would be vulnerable without a settlement between Iraqi Kurds and the central government in Baghdad.

"Iraqi oil is not really needed and will continue not to be needed for the next 3 years at least," Chalabi said. Considering Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' problems in setting quotas without Iraq, "...imagine the problems it would face with Iraq wanting to produce at capacity."

With much of the recent limited news from Iraq detailing the army's brutal treatment of southern Iraqi Marsh Arabs, it is unlikely OPEC will face this dilemma in the short term.