WATCHING GOVERNMENT NAFTA TROUBLES
On the heels of its bruising battle to pass its deficit reduction bill, the Clinton administration faces tough fights this fall on health care reform and the North American Free Trade Agreement.
The Bush administration negotiated Nafta to slash tariffs and trade restrictions among the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
The Congressional Budget Office says Nafta will do little to boost energy trade between the U.S. and Mexico in the short term but may help over time (OGJ, Aug. 30, p. 42).
The Clinton team recently negotiated two "side agreements" that create commissions to investigate and resolve complaints that any of the countries may not be corn plying with environmental and labor laws.
Canada has endorsed Nafta, and the Mexican Senate is expected to approve it this month or next.
ROADBLOCK ON FAST TRACK
The U.S. Congress will open hearings on the pact next week and vote in November or December so it can take effect Jan. 1, 1994. Congress will consider Nafta under a "fast track" process that will bar amendments.
But there is a possible roadblock. The Clinton administration is appealing a federal judge's ruling that it must draft an environmental impact study for Nafta before Congress can vote.
Clinton's Nafta side agreements may have cooled environmental opposition to something like lukewarm support, but labor unions are still hot.
Lane Kirkland, AFL-CIO president, pledged last week unions are unalterably opposed to Nafta because it would allow R.S. firms to shift jobs to low-paying Mexican factories.
Kirkland said Nafta is "a poison pill left over from the previous administration" and "deeply detrimental to the best interests of this country and the workers of America. 11
If that weren't enough, populist Ross Perot also has begun campaigning against Nafta with speeches and a new book.
Labor oriented Democrats like House majority leader Richard Gephardt (D-Mo.) and majority whip David Bonior (D-Mich.) strongly oppose Nafta.
Bonier, whose role is to count the Democratic votes for pending bills, recently predicted 66-75% of House Democrats will oppose the agreement.
But most House Republicans support Nafta, and the administration must be only 12-18 votes shy of passage.
THE HOUSE AND SENATE
Although trade bills normally originate in the House, Senate minority leader Robert Dole (R-Kan.) has suggested the Senate consider Nafta first. Senators are likely to approve the pact, and that would help the House effort.
President Clinton said he will consider that idea and propose a worker training bill to accompany Nafta in the House and help its' passage there.
The administration also has asked five former U.S. presidents to attend a Washington rally for Nafta next week.
It appears Clinton can win the Nafta battle. It's less clear whether he wants to make the effort.
Copyright 1993 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.