NATURE'S COMPLEXITY CONFOUNDS REMEDIES

The biggest threat to Planet Earth may be people who think they're bigger than nature. Through science, people increasingly comprehend, even manipulate, some of nature's wondrous forces. But nature's vexing complexity always prevails. Few natural processes work in isolation. People nevertheless insist on assessing and dealing with natural problems one at a time. Late last month, two environmental developments, technically unrelated, showed how futile this approach can be.

Sept. 6, 1993

3 min read

Late last month, two environmental developments, technically unrelated, showed how futile this approach can be.

First, United Nations officials said the global warming treaty signed in June 1992 probably will take effect ahead of schedule early next year. The agreement commits countries to reduce emissions of gases that trap heat in the atmosphere. More countries than are necessary to do so have said they will ratify the pact by yearend. But there are disagreements over implementation details, such as-surprise!-funding.

THE NPC REPORT

Money was central to last month's other interesting environmental development. National Petroleum Council reported to the U.S. Department of Energy that refineries in the U.S. will have to make capital investments totaling $37 billion during the 1990s to comply with environmental and safety regulations, including new fuel specifications. That's $6 billion more than the current, combined book value of all refineries in the land. NPC estimated cost increases associated with environmental regulations at $18 billion/year by 2000. During 1991-2010, capital outlays, one-time expenses, and operating and maintenance costs required by existing and anticipated environmental and safety regulations will total $106 billion.

This is money that refiners must spend just to stay in business. Inevitably, some of them will decide that the business isn't worth the environmental entry fee. Ultimately, consumers will bear the cost.

Of course the laws and regulations requiring these outlays by U.S. refiners have nothing directly to do with global warming. Even the egregious Clean Air Act amendments of 1990, which generated the expensive requirements for reformulated and oxygenated vehicle fuels, addressed not global warming but ground level ozone, carbon monoxide, and sulfur dioxide. To the extent climate change theories are valid, however, the U.S. air quality measures contravene the U.N.'s global warming initiative.

The alleged culprit in global warming is carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas that exists in greatest-and growing-quantity in the atmosphere. As a Shell International Petroleum Co. paper noted in July, however, all modifications in prospect to make diesel and gasoline burn cleaner than before increase emissions Of C02 on a wells to wheels basis. This only stands to reason. Pure combustion yields C02 and water; the closer a fuel comes to a clean-burning ideal, the more C02 its burning should produce as other byproducts disappear.

INHERENT TRADEOFFS

Extremists will say this means that the world should burn cleaner fuels and use less of them as well. The global warming treaty will aim at reduced consumption of fossil fuels. And like recent U.S. clean-air laws, it will generate costs far out of proportion to the purported environmental benefits.

To some, any costs incurred for environmental purposes amount to coordinated sacrifice to a natural world in need of human help. But environmental initiatives can and sometimes do conflict. Proposed global warming precautions and U.S. clean-air measures demonstrate the tradeoffs inherent in what is, after all, a world of infinite complexity. Nature has ways of reminding people that the whole remains bigger than its parts.