The former Soviet Union's energy crisis likely will persist through the end of the 1990s.
However, rising natural gas and coal production may marginally ease the nation's fuel shortage at least by 1994.
Especially important in easing energy problems in the new Commonwealth of Independent States will be conservation in industrial and domestic sectors, says a study published by the Moscow weekly Ekonomika i Zhizn (Economics and Life).
C.I.S. oil flow is expected to fall again this year. But the study shows higher capital investment including foreign funds, improved technology, replacement of worn out equipment, better management, and market oriented prices could enable crude and condensate production to hold virtually steady at about- 10 million b/d during 1995-2000.
Without required changes, C.I.S. oil production could fall to about 9.2 million b/d by 1995 before recovering slightly to about 9.5 million b/d in 2000, the study shows.
However, even under the best of circumstances, crude and condensate flow is not likely to exceed last year's 10.16 million b/d during the rest of the decade and will remain far below the 1987-88 record of 12.48 million b/d.
The Moscow researchers believe the difference between the best and worst scenarios for oil production in 1993-2000 will be significantly greater than for gas and coal.
In terms of total "standard fuel" production, based on the total energy provided by oil, gas, and coal, the C.I.S. in 2000 could at best slightly exceed the peak level of 1987-88. Electrical power generation will continue to lag demand.
NATURAL GAS
Ekonomika i Zhizn's study found that C.I.S. gas production should again show substantial gains soon, with the upturn possibly beginning this year and almost certainly by 1993. Last year, the U.S.S.R.'s gas flow fell to 28.39 tcf from 28.77 tcf in 1990, the first decline since the end of World War II.
By 2000, C.I.S. gas production could reach nearly 1.1 trillion cu m (38.83 tcf.
At minimum, flow should be about 1 trillion cu m (35.3 tcf.
Gas production last year dropped in part because of delays in development of supergiant Yamburg field north of the Arctic Circle in western Siberia, giant Karachaganak field in Northwest Kazakhstan, and giant Astrakhanskoye field near the mouth of the Volga River.
Shortages of funds, pipe, and equipment severely reduced construction of gas trunk lines, laterals, and municipal distribution systems in 1991.
COAL REBOUND
A vigorous rebound in C.I.S. coal production is expected to begin this year, barring more major strikes, or in 1993 and continue through 2000.
The U.S.S.R.'s coal production peaked at 772 million metric tons in 1988 and fell to about 610 million tons last year.
By 2000, C.I.S. coal production is forecast to rebound to a maximum of about 750 million tons.
Copyright 1992 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.
