OIL DECLINE PERSISTS IN MOST COMMUNIST, FORMER COMMUNIST COUNTRIES

Oil production in Communist and former Communist nations continued its steep decline during first half 1992. Flow of about 12.525 million b/d compared with a revised figure of 13.777 million b/d during the same 1991 period. Daily production average fell to about the same level reached in 1976. The Commonwealth of Independent States along logged a larger decline than the entire former communist bloc. Further losses for the C.I.S. as well as for present and former communist nations as a group

Sept. 14, 1992

3 min read

Oil production in Communist and former Communist nations continued its steep decline during first half 1992.

Flow of about 12.525 million b/d compared with a revised figure of 13.777 million b/d during the same 1991 period. Daily production average fell to about the same level reached in 1976.

The Commonwealth of Independent States along logged a larger decline than the entire former communist bloc. Further losses for the C.I.S. as well as for present and former communist nations as a group are anticipated during the remainder of 1992 and in 1993.

Only Viet Nam is showing substantial crude production gains. China's oil production growth remains far below Beijing's long term goals.

C.I.S. PRODUCTION

C.I.S. crude and condensate flow plummeted from 10.623 million b/d in first half 1991 to about 9.,331 million b/d in the same 1992 period.

Russia, which produces almost 905 of C.I.S. oil, was responsible for essentially all of the commonwealth's oil production slide in first half 1992. The republic's production plunged from an average 9.67 million b/d during first half 1991 to less than 8.3 million b/d in the same period this year.

Unofficial reports say that average daily Russian oil flow fell during 5 of the 6 months in first half 1992. Production for the full year is expected to average about 8 million b/d.

Biggest problem is the huge number of shut-in wells in Russia's biggest producing area, western Siberia. It's estimated that they number 17,900, or 25.3$ of the region's total, last March.

If enough equipment were available to keep all those wells on stream, Russian oil flow could theoretically be hiked by as much as 1 million b/d.

Substantial volumes of crude produced in western Siberia are lost in the fields and during transportation to refineries or export terminals.

VIET NAM, CHINA

Viet Nam is the one bright spot in oil production from communist and former communist nations. Its production, entirely from giant offshore White Tiger (Bach Ho) field, reportedly jumped from 65,000 b/d during first half 1991 to about 100,000 b/d in the same period this year.

White Tiger flow continued to grow during July. Viet Nam's oil production target for all of 1992 is an average of 108,000 b/d.

China's oil production apparently increased only about 1.5% to 2.844 million b/d in first half 1992 vs. 2.8 million b/d in the same 1991 period. However, some reports indicate no gain at all over the first 6 months of last year.

Even if China is achieving oil production increases they are lagging far behind the nation's soaring industrial and commercial activity.

The nation's higher oil production, if indeed it is real, appears to be coming mainly from offshore fields. Flow from supergiant Daqing and other big onshore fields in China's northeastern provinces has peaked and can't be counted upon for future gains despite intensive exploitation.

OTHER COUNTRIES

Romania, once an important factor in Communist bloc oil production, is believed to have maintained flow at about 140,000 b/d, at best, during first half 1992. Neither onshore nor Black Sea production changed much from the same 1991 period.

Domestic strife in what's left of Yugoslavia reduced that splintered nation's oil production to an estimated 22,000 b/d average from 60,000 b/d during the first 6 months of 1991. Official figures were not reported.

Oil flow from other communist and former communist nations has remained about steady. Estimates for first half 1992 include Hungary 34,000 b/d, Albania 30,000 b/d, Cuba 15,000 b/d, Bulgaria 4,000 b/d, Czechoslovakia 3,000 b/d, and Poland 2,000 b/d.