World demand for crude oil is likely to grow by 600,000 b/d to 66.8 million b/d in 1992, says International Energy Agency in its latest oil market report.
Demand among members of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development is expected to rise by 400,000 b/d, with the remainder of the increase coming from the rest of the world.
Non-OECD growth has been reined by consumption declines in the former Soviet Union and non-OECD countries of Europe.
When these are taken out of the picture, overall non-OECD demand is expected to rise by 800,000 b/d in 1992, double the projected rate of increase in the main industrial countries.
During 1992, growth is expected in all OECD areas, but with North America taking a larger share of the growth than Europe and Japan, reversing trends of the past 2 years.
This partly reflects projections of economic activity picking up in North America but slowing in Japan and Germany. North American oil demand is projected to rise by about 2% to 18.9 million b/d-the same level as in 1990 but 400,000 b/d below 1989's level.
European oil demand is expected to increase by 100,000 b/d to 13.3 million b/d, and OECD Pacific region demand is expected to increased by 1.5% to 6.2 million b/d.
In the non-OECD area, demand is expected to fall in the former Soviet Union by 600,000 b/d to 7.7 million b/d and in non-OECD Europe by 100,000 b/d to 1.3 million b/d. The biggest increases in non-OECD demand are expected in Asia and Latin America.
The IEA oil report also shows throughput in European OECD refineries increased by 1.2 million b/d to 12 million b/d in November, reversing declines seen in the previous 2 months. Japanese refineries also saw an increase, about 400,000 b/d to 4.1 million b/d, while U.S. crude throughput was unchanged at 12.9 million b/d in November.
Preliminary indications for December suggest throughput levels in Europe sustained at relatively high levels, coinciding with firm refining markets, IEA said. Japanese throughput levels are thought to have increased slightly from November levels, and U.S. data indicated slightly higher crude runs in December.
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