In the last 2 weeks, three powerful individuals in the oil industry have left key positions.
The most striking exit, of course, was by Robert Horton, chairman and chief executive of British Petroleum Co. plc (OGJ, July 6, p. 35).
His ouster by fellow BP board members has been compared with the assassination of Julius Caesar. Like the emperor, he fell foul of predictions.
Caesar's Ides of March, which he ignored at peril, are broadly analogous to Horton's predictions on crude oil prices, which his ex-colleagues say he made too publicly. Horton predicted $25/bbl by the mid-1990s, while BP is now quoting $18-21.
The $25 forecast has been identified by BP as very much Horton's opinion. The pace of cost cutting and debt reductions, also identified with Horton, will be stepped up now he has gone.
The Royal Dutch/Shell Group has been saying, less spectacularly, that $18/bbl will remain in place for the rest of the decade. Less spectacular in comparison, too, was the retirement of Lodewijk van Wachem from the presidency of Royal Dutch Petroleum Co. His exit was that of a respected elder statesman, coinciding with his appointment to the company's supervisory board.
NEW FREEDOM
Van Wachem's first public address as a retiree was to the annual luncheon of the London Chamber of Commerce at the Guildhall in London. He clearly enjoyed the opportunity his new freedom gave him to put a few matters straight. He decided to give his opinions on sustainable development, although he had been asked to talk about something else.
"I have noticed that environmental activists often concentrate on only one aspect of what are very difficult challenges," Van Wachem said. "We in industry, naturally enough, focus on the positive consequences of economic growth and consumption of energy.
"The recent conference in Rio demonstrated how difficult it is to establish a tradeoff acceptable to all those involved. What I hope is that, in the face of that difficulty, neither environmentalists nor industrialists use scare tactics or deliberately oversimplify the situation.
"We should all keep in mind a comment made to me recently by the president of a Latin American country. He asked me to explain to Europeans that the environment includes not only trees but women and children, too."
MOVING TARGET
One of the main targets of this comment probably was Carlo Ripa di Meana, environment commissioner for the European Community and the force behind the carbon tax. If he was the target, Van Wachem's efforts were in vain. Ripa di Meana has also moved on to become Italy's environment minister.
The three exits match the careers of the three individuals. The first was dramatic, apt for such a forceful man as Horton. The second was dignified, revealing the reflective side of a successful industrialist. And the last was Eurocratic: Ripa di Meana bowed out quietly, leaving his responsibilities to be apportioned. Thus the commissioner for transport, Karel van Miert, is the EC's green guru until the end of the present commission's term in December.
Copyright 1992 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.
