C.I.S. OIL FLOW SLIDE LEADS RECORD DROP FOR FORMER COMMUNIST BLOC

March 9, 1992
Oil production from Communist and former Communist nations fell a record 1.085 million b/d last year. Crude and condensate flow declined to an estimated 13.455 million b/d from a revised 14.540 million b/d in 1990. Last year's 7.5% drop pushed output from the disintegrating Communist bloc to the lowest level since 1977. The new Commonwealth of independent States (C.I.S.), including 12 members of the former U.S.S.R., reported the largest oil production plunge in Soviet history. China showed

Oil production from Communist and former Communist nations fell a record 1.085 million b/d last year.

Crude and condensate flow declined to an estimated 13.455 million b/d from a revised 14.540 million b/d in 1990. Last year's 7.5% drop pushed output from the disintegrating Communist bloc to the lowest level since 1977.

The new Commonwealth of independent States (C.I.S.), including 12 members of the former U.S.S.R., reported the largest oil production plunge in Soviet history.

China showed an oil production gain of 1.1%, continuing the minimal hikes reported since 1988.

Only Viet Nam among Communist or former Communist nations registered robust growth in 1991 oil flow.

Among other former Soviet bloc countries, Romanian and Yugoslav output dropped sharply.

FORMER U.S.S.R.

C.I.S.-still known as the U.S.S.R. during most of last year--in effect accounted for all of the Communist/former Communist crude and condensate decline in 1991. Commonwealth output plummeted about 1.1 million b/d, while the remaining nations of the former Communist bloc gained 15,000 b/d due entirely to China and Viet Nam.

While C.I.S. oil production remained the world's largest in 1991, its lead over second ranked Saudi Arabia narrowed drastically.

Official figures show 1991 C.I.S. output was about 10.3 million b/d vs. more than 11.4 million b/d in 1990. Oil flow peaked in the U.S.S.R. at 12.48 million b/d in 1987 and 1988, then fell to 12.14 million b/d in 1989.

The Russian Federation, largest of the C.I.S. member republics, produced 9.22 million b/d in 1991. That is down about 11% from 10.36 million b/d in 1990.

Only three of the 12 C.I.S. members showed oil output gains last year. Kazakhstan flow rose to 532,000 b/d from 516,500 bo/d, but hikes in Uzbekistan and Belarus were less than 1%.

On the other hand, Ukraine crude/condensate flow fell 6% to 98,000 b/d and Azerbaijan 6% to 234,000 b/d.

CHINA, VIET NAM

China last year increased oil production to about 2.8 million b/d. That was a gain of roughly 30,000 b/d from 1990 levels.

Despite the small overall increase, Beijing claimed that all of its major oil fields met their production, goals last year.

Daqing, by far the largest Chinese field, reported 1991 flow was 1.112 million b/d, about level with 1990. it was the 13th straight year that Daqing produced more than 1 million b/d.

Output from China's offshore as well as onshore oil sectors is increasing considerably slower than originally planned for the early 1990s. Last year's offshore production was about 48,000 b/d, substantially less than Viet Nam's.

Beijing officials concede oil flow gains are being achieved with difficulty. Serious problems have been encountered in hiking flow in China's promising western basins.

Viet Nam exceeded its 1991 oil production goal. Flow was about 80,000 b/d vs. a target of dose to 71,000 b/d and 54,000 b/d produced in 1990.

Hanoi has forecast 1992 output will be 96,000 b/d and expects further gains to 120,000 b/d or more by 1995. White Tiger field in the South China Sea continues to provide all of Viet Nam's oil production. Development of other South China Sea fields is being slowed by inadequate financing.

OTHER FORMER SOVIET BLOC

With its entire economy in deep depression, Romania's 1991 oil production dropped again to 140,000 b/d from 159,000 b/d in 1990. Peak output was 294,000 b/d in 1976.

Widespread ethnic unrest pushed Yugoslavia's oil flow down to around 43, 000 b/d from 63,000 b/d in 1990. Yugoslav oil output topped out at 88,000 b/d in 1981.

Other estimated 1991 Communist and former Communist oil production included Hungary 38,000 b/d, Albania 30,000 b/d, Cuba 15,000 b/d, Bulgaria 4,000 b/d, Czechoslovakia 3,000 b/d, and Poland 2,000 b/d.

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