SCOTS PLAN TO MAKE OIL EXPERTISE STICK
Now can oil industry jobs be kept after the oil runs out?
That question has been worrying government agency Scottish Enterprise, Aberdeen.
The agency says Scotland has 100,000 oil industry employees. Many work in 2,000-3,000 specialist companies believed too small to compete internationally
Kourosh Bassiti, head of the energy group at Scottish Enterprise, says companies will have to increase exports or diversify to survive.
Scottish Enterprise has assessed Scotland's strengths and weaknesses in oil and gas. For instance, Bassiti said, Scotland's fabrication sector increasingly struggles to compete because of relatively high labor costs.
Scottish Enterprise is looking to build on three main strengths: drilling and downhole technology, subsea technology, and information and control technology. In those areas, Scots can win orders in the home territories of their major international competitors, Bassiti says.
Income from the U.K. oil and gas industry is expected to shrink 5%/year. Hence, Bassiti says, exports must account for 30-35% of Scottish oil companies' income by 2000 and more than 40% by 2010.
EXPORT TARGETS
"If we can achieve these export targets, Scotland will retain at least 50% of its oil industry workforce," Bassiti said. Future field developments will only help keep existing jobs longer, delaying an inevitable decline.
Another hope is diversification into newer energy sectors. Oil and gas accounts for 90% of Scottish Enterprise funding now, but renewable sources are expected to take 15% within a few years.
"Europe is looking to have about 50% of its energy provided by renewable sources by 2050,' Bassiti said. 'Because of the maturity of Europe's oil and gas industry, renewables are becoming increasingly significant.
"Whichever nation develops renewables technology first will be able to lead the market. Scottish Enterprise is funding applied research in Scotland."
Besides exports of technology, Scottish Enterprise wants to export to continental Europe electricity generated in Scotland using renewable sources. This way, Bassiti says, countries such as Netherlands that can't meet renewables requirements internally could meet targets through imports.
RENEWABLES
Government's Scottish Office last November decreed that 76,000 kw of new power generation should use renewable fuels. Twenty-nine Scottish projects have been approved for development, including biomass, recovery of methane from refuse, and combined wind and wave energy schemes.
"All will generate less than 10,000 kw," Bassiti said. "They need funding to match the economies of scale of conventional generation."
Hydroelectric projects also are important in Scotland, although big dams are environmentally unacceptable. Bassiti said Scotland has more minihydro schemes than anywhere else in the world - another exportable technology.
"For example, Viet Nam is now looking at up to 200 minihydro schemes on rivers," Bassiti said. "Viet Nam has learned from other countries' experiences and plans to take power to villages to help avoid mass migration of people to cities."
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