Azerbaijan production estimates

In 1993, the World Bank produced the first independent estimates of Azerbaijan's oil potential. It gave actual production at 220,000 b/d peaking at 1 million b/d in 2004. In 1995, I was involved in a European Commission study which had current production moving from 190,000 b/d to 800,000 b/d in 2006. The articles by Wood Mackenzie on Caspian Sea potential (OGJ, July 24, 2000, p. 38) and (OGJ, Aug. 21, 2000, p. 52) forecast Azerbaijan's production peaking at about 14 million b/d in 2010 from today's 200,000 b/d.

Can we conclude that in the foreseeable future, as over the past 7 years, actual production will remain static at 200,000 b/d and the bottom will remain a decade away from wherever we are now?

Mike Lillico
Mallorca, Spain