WATCHING THE WORLD DOMESDAY BOOK FOR U.K. ENERGY

After William the Conqueror led the Norman invasion of England in 1066, he decided he wanted to know exactly what he had conquered.

He ordered a survey of landowners and their properties, which became the Domesday Book of 1086.

U.K. Energy Minister Tim Eggar has attempted a similar record for the U.K. energy industry, published June 15 as the first Annual Energy Report.

The report, said Eggar in its foreword, "...points up the main current development in the U.K. energy sector: the change from domination by state owned monopolies in most areas towards fully competitive markets for all fuels."

ELECTRICITY DECISIONS

The Annual Energy Report reflects the withdrawal of government from interference in energy markets. And it hints at the proliferation of complex decisions this will require from fuel producers and users, especially for electricity generation.

Of the 73 million metric tons of oil equivalent of fuel used for electricity generation last year, coal supplied 53.5%, nuclear power 26.5%, gas 9%, oil 8%, hydroelectricity 2%, and renewable sources 1%.

Beyond saying that "...Most forecasts seem to envisage that gas will have around 20% or more..." of the U.K. power generation market by the end of the decade, the report avoids any study of how the expected demise of coal generation may affect other fuels.

"The government cannot know what decisions players in competitive markets are likely to make in the longer term," says the report.

However, it lists some events that may affect investment plans:

British Coal Corp. is to be split: and sold by the end of 1994.
The future of Britain's nuclear power industry is to be reviewed by government, with public comments sought by Sept. 30.
Starting in April 1996 the non-domestic gas market should be open to competition.
Last February, chief generators National Power plc and Power-Gen plc were given 2 years to sell 4: million kw and 2 million kw, respectively, of oil and coal fired power to independent generators.
The second United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Sulfur Protocol, agreed this month, requires U.K. industry to reduce sulfur dioxide emissions 80% by 2010 compared with 1980 levels. This may kill off many remaining coal fired power stations.

BRITAIN'S LEAD

Government's role is to provide a legal and regulatory framework, not to decide how much and what type of energy should be produced[ and used, says the report: "The U.K. is leading the rest of the world in exploring the possibilities of real competition".

Of state owned energy programs, the report says: "Experience suggests that the uncertainties of supply and demand, technological change, and behavior of individuals and companies will doom such plans to failure."

Europe's state owned utilities in particular must be grateful to learn of their impending doom from the U.K.'s Department of Trade & Industry. It will be interesting to see how many countries follow Britain's lead.