Worldwide oil production increased by an estimated 630,000 b/d this year, with gains coming both inside and outside of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Oil & Gas Journal estimates average production of crude oil and lease condensate this year at 60.412 million b/d. Of that, 24.943 million b/d came from OPEC.
The 35.468 million b/d that came from non-OPEC sources compares with 35.093 million b/d in 1993.
Proved reserves of crude oil now total 999.76 billion bbl, according to OGJ estimates. That's a 637 million bbl gain from the prior year's estimate.
OPEC's crude oil reserves total 770 billion bbl, down 1.9 billion bbl from a year earlier.
Worldwide reserves of natural gas total an estimated 4.98 quadrillion cu ft, down fractionally from a year ago. OPEC's gas reserves increased by 13 tcf to 2.034 quadrillion cu ft.
OGJ's reserves estimates come from government and industry sources and an extensive, international survey of reserves owners. The survey requests data only for proved reserves. Totals nevertheless contain indistinguishable volumes that some reserves reporting schemes would classify as indicated.
Field production data come from OGJ survey results and official published sources where they are available. For the first time this year, the field data do not contain a category for cumulative production.
Changes in the reserves for individual countries this year contained no major surprises. Most resulted from new estimates or updates from sources that had not reported for several years.
A significant production trend is the gain, however slight, in the nonOPEC average. The 1993 average was down by nearly I million b/d from that of 1992,
Non-OPEC production is expected to grow even more in 1995. In its Monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency projected a continuation of late-1994 non-OPEC production gains into 1995.
It cited fields coming on stream in the North Sea, Asia, and Latin America, where Colombia's giant Cusiana oil field began commercial production in October. Production from the field is to rise to 150,000 b/d by late next year.
In Asia, production was rising late this year in China, India, Malaysia, and Viet Nam.
Inevitably, however, the non-OPEC share of worldwide production will give way to OPEC, even if non-OPEC volumes continue to rise. Expected demand gains will increase the amount of oil needed in the world, and the relative underdevelopment of OPEC's disproportionate share of worldwide reserves means incremental flow will have to come from members of the exporter's group.
The global reserves to production (R/P) ratio, a measure of the extent of reserves development, is 45.3 years, according to data in this report. OPEC's R/P ratio, by comparison, is 84.6 years. And key individual members have R/P ratios even higher: Saudi Arabia 91 years, Abu Dhabi 137 years, and Kuwait 140 years, for example.
The world, in other words, will need more oil if even conservative market expectations come true. And OPEC, notwithstanding impressive but isolated production gains elsewhere, is where most of the world's oil resides.
This year's Worldwide Production report, therefore, includes an analysis from an analyst at the OPEC Secretariat of past changes in production and reserves and projections into the next century.
Changes within periods defined in his study highlight the basis for expectations of long term gains in OPEC market share.
Copyright 1994 Oil & Gas Journal. All Rights Reserved.
Issue date: 12/26/94
