The current oil price environment is accelerating a structural divergence within the global shale sector. Mature US plays are increasingly governed by capital discipline and margin preservation, while select international basins continue to attract investment based on scale, resource quality, and long-term optionality. The contrast between the Bakken shale in North Dakota and Argentina’s Vaca Muerta in the Neuquén basin illustrates this shift.
Bakken
The Bakken shale, developed at scale since the late 2000s, has entered a mature phase. Production averaged roughly 1.1 million bld/ in early 2025, with occasional peaks near 1.2 million b/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). Output has remained broadly stable, supported by longer laterals, refracturing programs, and high-grading of remaining inventory, offsetting a natural decline rate of 5-7% per year.
Economics have tightened. Realized oil prices, net of differentials and transportation, fell into the low-to-mid $50s/bbl in late 2025, compressing margins across the play. In this context, certain operators have paused new drilling activity, prioritizing cash flow over volume growth.
Technically recoverable resources in the Bakken are generally estimated at 7-10 billion bbl, reflecting a play where much of the highest-quality acreage has already been developed. Lifting costs remain competitive at $6-8/bbl, supported by scale and well-established infrastructure, including the Dakota Access Pipeline. Nevertheless, full-cycle breakeven prices are commonly assessed at $55-60/bbl, leaving limited tolerance for sustained price weakness.
Rising gas-oil ratios have emerged as an additional constraint, increasing demand for gas takeaway capacity. Midstream projects are under development, potentially adding up to 750 MMcfd later this decade, but execution risk and timing remain key variables. Overall, Bakken development is now characterized by incremental optimization rather than expansion.
Vaca Muerta
By contrast, Vaca Muerta remains in a growth phase. The formation is regarded as one of the largest undeveloped shale oil and gas resources outside the US.
Shale oil production from Vaca Muerta reached about 550,000-580,000 bd/ by September 2025, up about 30% year-on-year, lifting Argentina’s total crude output to 850,000-860,000 b/d. The play now accounts for more than half of national oil production, with exports expanding as pipeline capacity increases.
Industry estimates place technically recoverable shale oil resources at more than 16 billion bbl. Development has been led by YPF, alongside international and regional operators including Vista Energy, Shell, Chevron, and Pluspetrol. Additional US capital has entered the basin, reinforcing its position as a destination for shale investment outside North America.
Cost performance has improved. Drilling and completion costs typically range $8-10 million per horizontal well, down roughly 30% from levels seen 2 years earlier, driven by operational learning and tighter execution. Lifting costs vary by operator and area: best-performing wells report figures below $5/bbl, while field-level averages remain closer to $9-11/boe, reflecting logistics, labor intensity, and infrastructure constraints.
Vaca Muerta’s primary limitation is not geology, but infrastructure. However, oil takeaway capacity is expanding. The Oldelval pipeline system is undergoing a major expansion expected to lift capacity toward 500,000 b/d during 2025–26, while the Vaca Muerta Oil Sur (VMOS) project is designed for 750,000 b/d.
Significant midstream investment will be required over the coming decades to enable large-scale LNG exports and sustained regional gas flows. Regulatory stability and execution discipline will be critical to converting resource potential into commercial volumes.
The divergence between Bakken and Vaca Muerta reflects two distinct stages of shale development. Bakken represents a mature system, where returns depend on operational efficiency and price recovery rather than growth. Vaca Muerta offers scale, improving productivity, and a long development runway.
Under supportive price conditions and continued infrastructure buildout, Vaca Muerta’s shale oil output could approach 750,000-800,000 b/d later this decade.
For the upstream industry, the comparison underscores a broader trend: shale capital is increasingly selective, flowing toward basins where geology, infrastructure, and economics align to support long-term returns.