OPEC+ to maintain oil production levels amid tensions in Iran

OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) agreed on Sunday, Feb. 1, to keep oil production levels unchanged for March, reaffirming earlier decisions amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and firmer crude prices.

The decision was taken at a brief meeting attended by eight OPEC+ members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman—after Brent crude settled near $70/bbl on Friday. Prices have been supported by market concerns that the US could launch a military strike against Iran, an OPEC member.

The eight producers had already agreed to raise output quotas by a combined 2.9 million b/d between April and December 2025, equivalent to about 3% of global oil demand. However, in November the group froze plans for further increases scheduled for January–March 2026, citing seasonally weak demand. Sunday’s meeting reaffirmed that freeze, following similar decisions taken in January and February.

The statement issued after the meeting offered no guidance on production policy beyond March. Given the increasing uncertainty surrounding tensions between Iran and the US, the group is keeping all options open, according to Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy and a former OPEC official. Leon added that OPEC’s own data show demand for OPEC+ crude declining in the second quarter, which could limit the scope for further production increases.

The situation in Iran remains tense, with the US employing both military pressure and diplomatic means. An escalation of the conflict could impact Iran's export volumes and threaten the Strait of Hormuz trade route, becoming a critical risk variable on the supply side.

At the same time, Venezuela, under the leadership of the interim government, continues to export crude oil to the US, and the US is gradually easing sanctions against it, which is expected to bring about a certain increase in supply.