OPEC+ keeps output increase on hold, approves new quota system
OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) agreed on Sunday, Nov. 30, to keep oil production policy unchanged into early 2026 while approving a new capacity-based quota system that will reshape how the group allocates output from 2027 onward.
Meeting virtually, the eight participating OPEC+ members—Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE—reaffirmed their Nov. 2 decision to maintain current production levels through first-quarter 2026. They will continue meeting monthly to track adherence and discuss any need for additional action, with the next gathering set for Jan. 4, 2026.
Since April 2025, the OPEC+ group has introduced about 2.9 million b/d into the market, while continuing to restrict around 3.24 million b/d of supply, which accounts for roughly 3% of global demand.
The meeting took place amid renewed US efforts to negotiate a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. A successful deal could potentially increase global oil supply if sanctions on Russia are lifted.
In parallel, the broader OPEC+ ministerial meeting confirmed group-wide 2026 quotas previously agreed earlier this year, signaling that no fresh changes in baseline targets are planned before the end of next year unless market conditions deteriorate sharply.
New Maximum Sustainable Capacity audits
Beyond near-term policy, the most consequential move from the Nov. 30 meetings was approval of a new quota framework based on audited Maximum Sustainable Production Capacity (MSC), which will be used to set production baselines starting in 2027.
Under the mechanism, OPEC+ will commission third-party audits of most its members’ sustainable production capacity between January and September 2026. A US consultancy, DeGolyer and MacNaughton, will assess most producers, while separate arrangements will be used for Russia and Venezuela and domestic figures for Iran because of sanctions and data-sharing constraints.
MSC is defined as the level of output a country can sustain for a year and bring onstream within 90 days. Future quotas will be tied to this audited capacity, replacing a patchwork of historical baselines that have long been criticized as misaligned with actual capability—especially as Gulf producers such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia have invested heavily to expand capacity while some African and smaller producers have seen structural declines.
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman described the new mechanism as a “turning point” and “fair and transparent,” arguing that it will reward countries that invest in upstream projects while easing internal tensions over perceived quota inequities.