OPEC+ has decided to slightly increase oil production in December, while suspending any further increases in first-quarter 2026. This decision comes as the organization reassesses its strategy to regain market share amid growing concerns about a potential supply glut.
During the monthly meeting held Nov. 2, the eight OPEC+ members involved—Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan, and Algeria—agreed to raise December output targets by 137,000 b/d, consistent with the increases made in October and November.
"Beyond December, due to seasonality, the eight countries also decided to pause the production increments in January, February, and March 2026," the group said in a statement. Refineries typically undergo maintenance after the holiday season, resulting in weaker oil demand in the first quarter.
“Like in the group’s recent meetings, this round also offered a surprise: That came from its decision to pause any production increases during first-quarter 2026. This is the first time since April 2025 that the group will not raise output,” said Jorge León, Head of Geopolitical Analysis from Rystad Energy.
“Yes, OPEC+ is blinking, but it’s a calculated move. Sanctions on Russian producers have injected a new layer of uncertainty into supply forecasts, and the group knows that overproducing now could backfire later. By pausing, OPEC+ is protecting prices, projecting unity, and buying time to see how sanctions play out on Russian barrels,” said León.
According to Rystad, for the Kremlin, staying composed and signaling control remains central to its strategy. Since any effect on Russian output will take time to emerge—and with Moscow intent on demonstrating stability—it supported another small OPEC+ production increase.
Updated liquids balances from Rystad indicate that, even if OPEC+ halts output hikes in first-quarter 2026, the market would still face a sizable surplus of about 3.5 million b/d. Such an accumulation would substantially ease market fundamentals, exerting fresh downward pressure on prices—unless offset by stronger demand growth, stockpiling activity, or unforeseen supply disruptions elsewhere.
Eight OPEC+ members are scheduled to reconvene on Nov. 30, coinciding with a comprehensive OPEC+ meeting.
