OPEC+ to hike oil production by 137,000 b/d starting in November

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with Russia and a few smaller producers, known as OPEC+, on Oct. 5 announced plans to increase oil production by 137,000 b/d starting in November, maintaining the same increase as in October in response to ongoing worries about a potential supply surplus.

OPEC+ described its decision as a reaction to stable global economic outlooks and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in low oil inventories. The group also indicates that adjustments to production could be halted or reversed if circumstances warrant.

By end-September 2025, OPEC+ had fully phased out the 2.2 million b/d voluntary production cuts introduced in late 2023, completing the process months earlier than initially signaled. They also confirmed their intention to fully compensate for any overproduced volume since January 2024. The next meeting will be hold on Nov. 2.

"The market was expecting a somewhat larger increase from OPEC+ as shown in the structure last week. However, the modest 137,000 b/d bloats the already-oversupplied balance for the fourth quarter of 2025 and 2026," said Janiv Shah, an analyst at Rystad Energy.

Global crude oil markets are experiencing a significant bearish trend, with ICE Brent prices dropping from last week's peak of $70/bbl to $65/bbl on Oct. 5, following OPEC's announcement to increase production.

Rystad Energy forecasts that under these circumstances, price dynamics will likely shift substantially downward. It is unlikely that ICE Brent will remain above $60-65/bbl in 2026 unless OPEC+ alters its approach or sanctions on Russia and Iran drastically curtail exports from those countries.