Brazil oil supply returns to record high volumes
Key Highlights
- Brazil's oil production decreased in 2024 but has since entered an upward phase with record-high outputs.
- The launch of new FPSOs and increased utilization rates are central to Petrobras' multi-year expansion strategy.
- The IEA projects Brazil's oil output to rise by an average of 400,000 b/d in 2025, with further gains expected in 2026.
- The deployment of eight FPSOs from 2024 to 2026 will add over 1.3 million b/d capacity, boosting Brazil's offshore production capabilities.
Brazil's oil sector is undergoing a significant revival after 2024 results showed oil production unexpectedly decrease by 50,000 b/d compared with the previous year.
Growth in 2024 was hindered by regulatory labor issues and several months of unplanned downtime. However, production has entered a robust upward phase this year due to the ramp-up of offshore installations and the launch of new projects.
Preliminary data for July from the Agencia Nacional do Petroleo (ANP) revealed a notable upward revision, showing oil production rising by 200,000 b/d month-on-month to reach a record high of 4 million b/d, an increase of 720,000 b/d year-on-year. Preliminary ANP figures for August indicate a slight decline of 50,000 b/d, primarily due to operational issues at the Petrobras-operated Mero 2 and Equinor Energy-operated Peregrino projects.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) projects Brazil’s overall production to rise by an unprecedented average of 400,000 b/d this year, reaching 3.8 million b/d, with an additional gain of 180,000 b/d anticipated in 2026.
This robust growth is a key component of Petrobras' ambitious multi-year plan to deploy floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessels in a systematic manner. In addition to the five FPSOs launched in 2023, another six are expected to be operational by mid-2025, with one more anticipated later this year and an additional one next year.
Collectively, the eight FPSOs being put into service from 2024 to 2026 will have a combined capacity of just over 1.3 million b/d, nearly double that of current UK production. For the FPSOs currently in operation, utilization rates have recently surged to nearly 75%, a significant increase from 63% in second-quarter 2025 and substantially higher than last year's average of 45%.
