The latest monthly report from OPEC indicates that the organization expects oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers, such as the US, to slow in 2025 due to falling oil prices.
Oil supply from non-OPEC+ countries, including the US, is projected to increase by about 800,000 b/d in 2025, down from last month’s forecast of 900,000 b/d, according to the report.
Following the decline in crude prices, exploration and production (E&P) investment in non-OPEC+ countries is expected to fall by about 5% year-on-year in 2025, the organization said, noting that in 2024, investment in the sector rose by about $3 billion year-on-year to reach $299 billion.
OPEC emphasized in the report that the decline in upstream E&P investment will pose challenges to production levels in 2025 and 2026, despite the industry’s continued focus on improving efficiency and productivity.
While the US is still expected to be the main driver of supply growth, OPEC now forecasts that US oil production will rise by only about 300,000 b/d this year, down from last month’s forecast of 400,000 b/d.
For years, rapid output growth from US shale and other producers has put pressure on oil prices. The slowdown in non-OPEC+ supply growth could help OPEC+ rebalance the market, according to the report.
OPEC maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 and 2026. The organization said the unchanged outlook reflects first-quarter demand data and the impact of trade tariffs. OPEC projects that global consumption will increase by 1.3 million b/d this year.
“The 90-day trade agreement between the US and China suggests the potential for more lasting agreements, likely supporting a normalization of trade flows but at potentially elevated tariff levels compared to pre-April escalations,” OPEC said.
