IHS Herold: Oil market to have 'moderate' recovery in 2010

Prices for light, sweet crude are expected to average $67/bbl during 2010, a spokesman told a Pacesetters Energy Conference hosted by IHS Herold Inc. on Sept. 22 in Greenwich, Conn.

Paula Dittrick
OGJ Senior Staff Writer

GREENWICH, CONN., Sept. 22 -- Prices for light, sweet crude are expected to average $67/bbl during 2010, a spokesman told a Pacesetters Energy Conference hosted by IHS Herold Inc. on Sept. 22 in Greenwich, Conn.

Oil prices dropped to about $35/bbl during February and have since rebounded with reports of improving global economic growth. Jim Burkhard, managing director of the IHS CERA’s (Cambridge Energy Research Associates) Global Oil Group, believes that oil demand in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development nations likely peaked in 2005.

“We’re not going to get back to that (oil) demand level again,” Burkhard said, which means potentially less upward pressure on oil prices, primarily because oil demand in OECD nations continues to shrink.

The reasons behind lower oil demand include rising fuel economy standards in many countries and the penetration of alternative fuels, Burkhard said.

Sara Johnson, IHS Global Insight managing director of global macroeconomics, said the US real gross domestic product is beginning to recover, but she expects unemployment rates will continue to rise going into next year.

“Beware of early 2010,” Johnson said, adding that she expects to see the start of job creation toward the end of the first quarter and beginning of the second quarter. “Don’t expect a strong ‘V-shape’ recovery in the US.”

The US dollar will depreciate and demonstrate more weakness through 2012, she said.

Contact Paula Dittrick at paulad@ogjonline.com.

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