EIA says world energy use to jump 59% in 20 years

Worldwide energy consumption is projected to grow 59% over the next two decades, the US Energy Information Administration said in a study Wednesday. It predicted oil prices will remain at the current $25-28/bbl until 2003, when they begin increasing.

March 29, 2001

2 min read

By the OGJ Online Staff

WASHINGTON, DC, Mar. 28�Worldwide energy consumption is projected to grow 59% over the next two decades, the US Energy Information Administration said in a study Wednesday.

Half of the projected growth is expected to occur in the developing nations of Asia (including China, India, and South Korea) and in Central and South America, where strong economic growth would spur demand for energy over the forecast period.

The agency said in its reference case, projections are that oil prices will remain at the current $25-28/bbl until 2003 when they begin increasing.

EIA said persistently high world oil prices, strong economic recovery in Southeast Asia, and robust economic growth in the former Soviet Union (FSU) impacted the outlook for world energy use.

�In 2000, world oil prices rebounded strongly, reaching a daily peak of $37/bbl, rates not seen since the Persian Gulf War of 1990-91. The high prices can be traced to a tightening of production by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and several key non-OPEC countries (Russia, Mexico, Oman, and Norway).�

EIA said demand in the recovering economies of southeast Asia rebounded more rapidly than anticipated after their 1997-99 recession.

EIA said the improved economic outlook for Russia and the rest of the FSU prompted it to forecast a 42% increase in energy consumption in the region between 1999 and 2020.

It said natural gas remains the fastest growing component of primary world energy consumption. The reference case predicts gas use would nearly double to 162 tcf in 2020. Gas surpassed coal (on a btu basis) for the first time in 1999 and by 2020 it is expected to exceed coal by 44%.

Gas is expected to account for the largest increment in electricity generation (accounting for 41% of the total increment in energy used for generation).

EIA said oil is expected to remain the world�s primary energy source with a 40% market share over the 1999-2020 period.

It said oil's share does not increase in the forecast because many nations are expected to switch to gas and other fuels, particularly for electricity generation. World oil use is projected to increase from 75 million b/d in 1999 to 120 million b/d in 2020.