“Overall OPEC output stood 1.1 million b/d above a year ago as Saudi production remained in excess of 10 million b/d for an eighth straight month and Iraq continued to pump near record rates above 4 million b/d,” IEA said.
The outlook for non-OPEC supply growth in 2016 has dimmed since last month’s report with steeper declines foreseen for US light tight oil. Non-OPEC supply is now expected to contract by more than 600,000 b/d next year to 57.7 million b/d, despite resilient production in a number of countries.
“Continued declines in US drilling activity suggest steeper drops in US LTO output lie ahead,” said the US Energy Information Administration. Producers pulled another 36 rigs out of service in October, to 578, while the number of new wells completed dropped to 800, the lowest rate since the start of 2011. As a result, EIA forecast US LTO production to contract by 600,000 b/d next year compared with declines of 400,000 b/d expected previously.
According to the latest official statistics from the EIA, the US Gulf of Mexico became the largest source of supply growth in August as onshore production gains eroded.