Russian oil export revenues surged by $1.8 billion in September, marking their highest level since July 2022, according to latest estimates from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The increase can be attributed to a combination of rising overall volumes (+460,000 b/d month-on-month) and higher weighted average prices of Russian crude (+$8/bbl m-o-m) and products. Export revenue increases were once again dominated by crude (+$1.5 billion m-o-m) and stood $2.6 billion above September 2022’s unusually low level.
The overall rise in exports reflected a 220,000 b/d m-o-m increase in product shipments and an estimated 250,000 b/d increase in crude oil. As of the current reporting, about 190,000 b/d of crude oil exports remain designated as going to "unknown" destinations, but much of this could offset the 300,000 b/d m-o-m drop currently shown for India. Crude oil exports to China increased by 270,000 b/d, and those to Turkey rose by 80,000 b/d. In total, crude oil exports remained unchanged when compared with September 2022.
Regarding product exports, 260,000 b/d of exports were still categorized as going to "unknown" destinations, and a portion of this may compensate for the 130,000 b/d m-o-m drop currently reported for Turkey. Notably, product exports to India increased by 160,000 b/d m-o-m, while shipments to most other destinations remained roughly unchanged. In comparison to the previous year, total product exports increased by 100,000 b/d, with reduced sales to the European Union (-870,000 b/d) being largely offset by higher volumes to Africa (+190,000 b/d), Turkey (+160,000 b/d), India (+190,000 b/d), Latin America (+140,000 b/d), and the Middle East (+80,000 b/d).
Product exports exhibited m-o-m growth for fuel oil (+360,000 b/d), gasoline (+90,000 b/d), and naphtha (+50,000 b/d), while they declined for gasoil (-200,000 b/d) and VGO (vacuum gasoil) (-90,000 b/d). The need to increase supplies to Russia's agricultural sector during the harvest season likely impacted gasoil exports, while refinery maintenance may have contributed to higher exports of fuel oil and naphtha. The increase in gasoline exports was probably influenced by the strong international prices.
Russian crude prices once again increased faster than the North Sea Dated benchmark in September, narrowing discounts for Urals to their lowest monthly average level since March 2022. All Russian crudes traded at more than $80/bbl, well above the G7 price cap. Premium product prices rose over the month, with the largest increases occurring for VGO and gasoil. The latter is now substantially above the G7 price cap.
Russian government revenues from oil in US dollars rose 24% m-o-m in September to $10.6 billion, but were 7% below their level of a year-ago.
