The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that OPEC members earned about $888 billion in net oil export revenue in 2022, the agency noted in its latest annual OPEC Revenues Fact Sheet.
OPEC's 2022 net revenue rose nearly 43% compared with the previous year, when OPEC net oil export revenue totaled an estimated $622 billion (real 2022 $). The increase in net export revenue in 2022 is mostly attributable to higher crude oil prices, and to a lesser degree to higher petroleum liquids production. OPEC total oil output rose to nearly 34.2 million b/d in 2022, increasing 2.5 million b/d year-on-year (y-o-y).
For each OPEC country, EIA derives net oil exports based on the country’s oil production and consumption estimates from the June 2023 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Oil production in this context includes crude oil, condensate, natural gas plant liquids, and other liquids. EIA assumes that these exports are sold at prevailing spot prices. EIA estimates projected revenues using its forecast for oil prices from the STEO report.
Iran and Venezuela, which are OPEC members that are not subject to the OPEC+ production targets, also increased their total liquids production in 2022. Using standard oil price benchmarks, this resulted in estimated net export revenues rising by $15 billion (real 2022 $) in Iran and $2 billion (real 2022 $) in Venezuela y-o-y. However, these estimates do not consider possible changes to discounts that Iran and Venezuela offered to their buyers.
Saudi Arabia produces the most crude oil among OPEC members, accounting for the largest share of OPEC total revenue in 2022. EIA estimates that Saudi Arabia's net export revenue was $311 billion, which accounted for about 35% of all OPEC oil revenue in 2022.
EIA forecasts that OPEC net oil revenue will fall to $656 billion (real 2022 $) in 2023. This decrease is attributable to lower OPEC production as a result of the extension of the OPEC+ agreement, along with a decrease in crude oil prices. EIA expects OPEC total oil liquids production to decrease to 33.5 million b/d in 2023, while the forecast Brent spot price will fall to $80/bbl from $101/bbl in 2022.
On a per capita basis, OPEC net oil export revenue rose from $1,205 in 2021 (real 2022 $) to $1,685 in 2022. EIA forecasts that 2023 per capita revenue will fall to $1,219 (real 2022 $).
In tandem with a forecast increase in OPEC output in 2024, based on the June 2023 STEO, EIA expects that OPEC net export revenue will rise to $682 billion (real 2022 $). EIA forecasts that global crude oil prices will increase in 2024, reflecting global oil inventories that will decrease in each of the next 5 quarters.