EIA forecasts steady energy consumption growth to 2050

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that strong economic growth and growing populations will drive increases in global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions and energy consumption through 2050. The projection is part of the International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Reference case, released Oct. 6, which assumes current laws and regulations.

In the Reference case, much of the increase in energy consumption will be met with liquid fuels and renewable energy sources. Liquid fuels remain the largest energy source, but renewable energy use grows to nearly the same level. Natural gas- and coal-fired generation technologies as well as the emerging use of batteries will also prompt increased consumption.

IEO2021 analyzes long-term world energy markets in 16 regions through 2050. It also includes side cases that explore differing assumptions of economic growth and crude oil prices.

Key findings

According to the IEO2021, the industrial and transportation sectors will largely drive the increase in energy consumption. Electric vehicle sales will grow through 2050, causing the internal combustion engine fleet to peak in 2023 for countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and in 2038 globally.

Despite this projected growth in electric vehicle sales, the continued growth in energy consumption will cause global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to rise through 2050 according to the IEO2021 Reference case.

Electricity generation will almost double in the developing non-OECD countries between 2020 and 2050. This generation will come largely from renewable resources, which are adopted because of falling technology costs and favorable laws and regulations.

Although new generation will largely be powered by renewables, dispatchable generation sources—such as natural gas- and coal-fired generating technologies as well as batteries—will remain important, especially for grid reliability.

Meanwhile, oil and natural gas production will continue to grow, mainly to support increasing energy consumption in developing Asian economies.

Driven by increasing populations and fast-growing economies, consumption of liquid fuels will grow the most in non-OECD Asia, where total consumption nearly doubles by 2050 from 2020 levels in the Reference case. Because these countries will consume more liquid fuels than they produce in the Reference case, IEA projects that non-OECD Asia will supplement local production with increased imports of crude oil and finished petroleum products. The increased imports will primarily be supported by increased production in the Middle East.

In the Reference case, both OPEC and non-OPEC oil production grow over the projection period, but OPEC production grows at almost three times the rate of non-OPEC production between 2020 and 2050. To meet increasing demand, countries will need to rely on increased exploration (to identify additional resources), increased drilling (to harvest new and proven reserves), and technology advances (to achieve greater production yields).

In the Reference case, by 2050, non-OECD Asia will become the largest importer of natural gas, and Russia will become the largest net exporter of natural gas.