US DOE: More diesels forecast to be hitting the road

By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, Sept. 3 -- A growing number of US families are forecast to buy diesel cars, pickup trucks, and sports utility vehicles in coming years, the US Department of Energy reported.

The report, "Future Potential of Hybrid and Diesel Powertrains in the US Light-Duty Vehicle Market," forecasts growth of 4-7% in light-duty diesel vehicles in the US market by 2012. The DOE's Oak Ridge National Laboratory released the findings during a Diesel Engine Emissions Reduction Conference in Coronado, Calif., this week.

"Since light-duty diesels currently account for only about 0.2% of the market today, this growth prediction is substantial," said Allen Schaeffer, executive director of Diesel Technology Forum, Washington, DC, which represents manufacturers of engines, fuel systems, and emissions control systems.

The study revealed that more 50% of gasoline vehicle owners now believe diesels are more powerful and cleaner than gasoline engines. About 75% consider diesels to be more fuel-efficient.

The study also favorably forecast that diesel engines will meet more stringent 2007 (Tier II) emissions standards.

"When compared to forecasts for hybrid technology, the Oak Ridge study predicts an overly conservative estimate for diesel technology growth (4-7%)—one that is at odds with other recent studies that predict more than double the market penetration (10-15%) in the same timeframe," noted Schaeffer.

The DOE study joined a growing number of reports and forecasts on near-term energy saving benefits of an increase in clean diesel cars, pick-up trucks and SUVs in the US, he said.

Previous DOE studies have found that a gradual 20% penetration of diesel vehicles by 2020 would save the US 350,000 b/d of oil. Meanwhile in Europe, diesel technology already accounts for 44% of all new vehicles.