“Many economic and financial data series point to improved future economic growth for both developed and emerging market economies, which supports the oil consumption growth outlook,” EIA said.
The composite leading indicator, a measure of economic growth, for OECD countries as a group has been rising since June 2016, implying that economic activity for those countries collectively could strengthen in the near term. The composite leading indicators for emerging markets, with the exception of India, have been rising since late 2015 and early 2016. The leading indicators for Brazil and Russia are above 100, potentially signaling that economic activity could be above their long-term average this year as their economies begin to recover from recessions.
Crude oil supply
In this month’s STEO, EIA expected supply from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase by 200,000 b/d in 2017 and by 500,000 b/d in 2018. Recent estimates of production from Libya, which is not subject to any production target under the OPEC curtailment agreement, average almost 700,000 b/d in January, the country’s highest production level since 2014.