Another above-normal Atlantic hurricane season likely, NOAA forecasts

The US Atlantic region is likely to experience another above-normal hurricane season this year, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration forecasters said. For the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season from June 1 through Nov. 30, they forecast a 45% chance of an above-normal season, a 35% chance of a near-normal period, and only a 20% chance of a below-normal season.

The numbers included Tropical Storm Arlene, a rare preseason storm that formed over the eastern Atlantic in April, NOAA said in an initial May 25 outlook, which will be updated in early August. The 2016 season was the most active since 2012, with 15 named storms, including 7 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes.

“The outlook reflects our expectation of a weak or nonexistent El Nino, near- or above-average sea-surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and average or weaker-than-average vertical wind shear in that same region,” said Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.

Strong El Ninos and wind shear typically suppress development of Atlantic hurricanes, so the prediction for weak conditions points to more hurricane activity this year, he said. Also, warmer sea surface temperatures tend to fuel hurricanes as they move across the ocean. However, the climate models are showing considerable uncertainty, which is reflected in the comparable probabilities for an above-normal and near-normal season, Bell said.

Contact Nick Snow at [email protected].