IEA rolls out 2009 supply and demand forecast

The International Energy Agency has released its outlook for 2009 oil supply and demand. In its latest monthly Oil Market Report, IEA said worldwide oil demand will increase by 860,000 b/d next year to average 87.7 million b/d. This year's demand growth is forecast at 890,000 b/d.

By OGJ editors
HOUSTON, July 10 --The International Energy Agency has released its outlook for 2009 oil supply and demand.

In its latest monthly Oil Market Report, IEA said worldwide oil demand will increase by 860,000 b/d next year to average 87.7 million b/d. This year's demand growth is forecast at 890,000 b/d.

OECD oil product demand will average 48 million b/d in 2009, down 1.2% from 2008, as rising oil prices continue to take their toll. The contraction in demand is expected to be particularly marked in North America, down 380,000 b/d, while demand in both Europe and the Pacific falls by roughly 100,000 b/d each.

But growth will be robust in developing economies, IEA said, as 1.4 million b/d of annual growth is expected to match that of 2008. Sustained economic growth in the key regions of Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America will drive most of the increase in demand.

The Paris-based agency sees supply from countries outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries rising 640,000 b/d to 50.6 million b/d in 2009, following a late-2008 increase, with oil production in Asia, the Caspian, Brazil, Canada, and the US adding to supplies.

Ongoing decline affects supply from the North Sea, Mexico, and non-OPEC Middle East, while Russian production also slips in 2009. Much of a previously expected 2008 surge in OPEC gas liquids has been pushed back into 2009 on project delays. So natural gas liquids production in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Nigeria, and Iran will support an 810,000 b/d expansion in OPEC gas liquids next year.

Looking at recent production levels, IEA said that last month OPEC crude supply increased 350,000 b/d to 32.4 million b/d, as Saudi Arabian supply rose to 9.45 million b/d, and exports from floating storage lifted Iranian supply to 3.8 million b/d.

Although higher supply lowers effective OPEC spare production capacity to 1.7 million b/d, increases from Saudi Arabia, Angola, Iraq, and Nigeria will lift overall capacity by around 1 million b/d by end-2008, IEA reported.

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